‘Little urge for food for regime change’: Trump provides ‘assist’ for Iran’s protesters, however what can he do?

[ad_1] It has been 10 days since US President Donald Trump warned Iran in opposition to cracking down on road protests, stressing that the US was able to "come to the rescue" of Iranian demonstrators.

As he put it, the US was “locked and loaded and able to go”.

Trump has since repeated that risk and stated he was “very sturdy choices” in opposition to Tehran – even because the dying toll from the regime’s ferocious crackdown soared to greater than 2,000, in line with rights teams.

In a social media publish on Tuesday, the US president urged Iranians to proceed protesting and stated “assistance is on its means”. He gave no particulars about what “assist” he was leaning in direction of and when it would come.

The enigmatic message got here a day after he exercised financial leverage by asserting 25 p.c tariffs on any nation that trades with Iran, and spoke of the way to revive web entry shut by Tehran.

Trump was to fulfill with senior advisers in a while Tuesday to debate doable plan of action, with choices reported to incorporate army strikes, utilizing secret cyber weapons, widening sanctions and offering on-line assist to anti-government sources.

"No person is aware of what President Trump goes to do aside from President Trump," White Home Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt advised reporters. "The world can preserve ready and guessing."

One-off strikes Buoyed by the profitable seize of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro earlier this month, Trump could also be tempted to provide America’s foes – and the broader world – one other style of US army may.

The US president has already confirmed his readiness to strike straight at Iran – first with the killing of Iran’s prime army commander Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, and extra not too long ago with the strikes on Iranian nuclear websites final June.

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An image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is about alight by protesters outdoors the Iranian embassy in London on January 12, 2026. © Alastair Grant, AP The latter raid, which concerned flying bunker-busting bombs from a base in Missouri and dropping them on two of Iran's most vital nuclear websites, confirmed that Washington is completely able to mounting large-scale operations from a distance.

Each assaults additionally mirrored Trump’s choice, as seen once more not too long ago in Venezuela, for one-off army operations he rapidly claims as successes.

“Trump clearly has the means to strike key targets throughout the Iranian regime, however he’s prone to need to achieve this in a fashion that's each decisive and doesn't drag the US into one thing long-term and indefinite,” stated Anthony Samrani, chief editor of Beirut-based publication L’Orient-Le Jour.

The difficulty, Samrani added, “is that there’s no assure a US assault would knock out the regime and even coerce it into being extra compliant.”

'Miscalculation’ Citing unnamed officers within the Trump administration, the New York Instances reported on Sunday that the president was “critically contemplating” army strikes in opposition to Iran however “has not made a remaining choice”.

The NYT stated advisers offered Trump with a spread of potential strike targets, together with unspecified non-military websites in Tehran and amenities linked to Iranian safety companies concerned in suppressing protests.

Learn extra Iran's hospitals, morgues fill after lethal crackdown on anti-regime protests

Hanging army installations comes with a excessive danger. Some bases of elite army and safety forces could also be situated in closely populated areas so any assault ordered by Trump might inflict massive civilian casualties.

Iranian authorities have vowed to retaliate in opposition to any assault, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warning Washington in opposition to "a miscalculation".

“Allow us to be clear: within the case of an assault on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) in addition to all US bases and ships can be our reputable goal," stated Qalibaf, a former commander in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.

Regardless of the harm incurred throughout final 12 months’s 12-day struggle with Israel, Iran nonetheless has a major arsenal of ballistic missiles. And whereas its regional proxies are a lot diminished, they're nonetheless able to motion.

Galvanising protesters – or the regime Analysts say the scope of any US assault is prone to show essential by way of both emboldening the protest motion or additional hardening the regime’s response.

Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow on the Council on International Relations, stated Trump might goal forces together with the Revolutionary Guards which have taken the lead in repressing the protests. Such a transfer may ease Iranians' fears and “have an effect on the fence-sitters in fascinated by becoming a member of the protests or not”, he advised AFP.

Others argue that the mere risk of US intervention has had the other impact, galvanising the regime’s crackdown on what it regards as foreign-backed “terrorists”.

“We have seen on the floor a consolidation of the federal government in addition to no defections in any respect,” stated Iran knowledgeable Trita Parsi, deputy head of the Washington-based Quincy Institute.

“The concept threats would end result within the Iranian regime backing off is in no way what we're seeing,” Parsi added. “Quite the opposite, we're in all probability seeing probably the most brutal stage of violence used in opposition to folks for the reason that begin of the Islamic Revolution.”

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Donald Trump arrive sur la base aérienne Andrews, dans le Maryland le 11 janvier 2026. © Julia Demaree Nikhinson, AP Senior lawmakers have additionally voiced contrasting opinions, with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham urging Trump to “embolden the protesters and scare the hell out of the regime”.

“If I have been you, Mr. President, I'd kill the management which might be killing the folks,” Graham, who has typically touted a muscular strategy to international coverage, advised Fox Information on Sunday. “You’ve acquired to finish this.”

However at the very least two Senate colleagues have sounded notes of warning.

“I don’t know that bombing Iran may have the impact that's meant,” Republican Senator Rand Paul advised ABC Information, warning {that a} army assault on Iran might rally the folks in opposition to an out of doors enemy.

Historical past reveals the risks of US intervention, added Democratic Senator Mark Warner, who argued that the US-backed 1953 overthrow of Iran's authorities set in movement a series of occasions that step by step led to the rise of the nation's Islamic regime.

'Little urge for food for regime change’ Reza Pahlavi, whose father the late shah of Iran was overthrown throughout the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has been one of the outstanding voices calling for a US intervention within the nation.

In a message designed to flatter and galvanise Trump, the exiled Pahlavi publicly inspired the US president to decide on a distinct course from his predecessor Barack Obama, who hesitated at supporting Iran’s huge protest motion in 2009 for concern of co-opting a homegrown motion.

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Un homme brandit une picture de Reza Pahlavi, fils exilé du dernier chah d'Iran, lors d'un rassemblement de soutien aux manifestations nationales devant l'ambassade d'Iran, à Londres, dimanche 11 janvier 2026. © Isabel Infantes, Reuters Pahlavi's title has surfaced in protesters’ slogans urging a restoration of the monarchy. On Sunday he stated he was ready to return to Iran to guide a shift to a democratic authorities.

Learn extra Understanding Iran’s protest chants: What are demonstrators’ calls for?

However Washington has given no indication to date that it plans to again the son of the shah, or certainly push for regime change.

“In contrast to what occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq within the early 2000s, there's little urge for food throughout the Trump administration for regime change,” stated Clément Therme, a historian and Iran knowledgeable on the Université Paul-Valéry in Montpellier.

“As an alternative, the administration’s choice goes to one-off operations aimed toward destabilising opponents,” stated Therme, noting that the Venezuelan opposition isn't any nearer to energy at present than it was earlier than Maduro’s seize.