MLB Roundtable: Mariners or Astros in AL West? Yankees and Mets in Hassle?

May we actually see no playoff baseball within the Massive Apple? 

That appeared unbelievable earlier this summer season, however the Yankees and Mets are struggling to maintain up of their respective wild-card races. Loads of video games left earlier than the postseason begins on Sept. 30, however FOX Sports activities MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar verify in on the largest subjects this week. 

1. Can the Mariners, with Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, do sufficient to win the AL West? Or will the Astros nab the division for the fifth 12 months in a row, and eighth time in 9 years? 

Kavner: I feel Seattle is probably the most harmful and full group within the American League, and I feel they lastly have the items to win their first division title since 2001. The Mariners look energized by their large deadline, going 9-2 of their first 11 video games of August. The additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez crammed their most obtrusive wants, and whereas they’re nonetheless ready for Suárez to get going, they lastly have a deep lineup to pair with their electrical pitching workers. Now, that doesn’t assure something. The Astros have exceeded expectations this 12 months, particularly contemplating all of the accidents they’ve weathered, and they need to get plenty of these items again down the stretch. There are only a lot extra query marks in Houston than there are in Seattle. 

Thosar: This must be the Mariners’ 12 months. They lastly appear like a whole group, however I’m curious to see how they carry out the remainder of this month with a more durable schedule on deck. Seattle is ready to play the Mets, Phillies, and Padres within the subsequent 12 days, with just one off day in that stretch. If the Mariners can get by that gauntlet with the identical tenacity they’ve proven of late (successful 10 of their final 13 video games), then I’m extra of a believer that they’ll actually win the division this 12 months. One other factor to notice is that, this season, each the Mariners and Astros have practically an identical data towards groups above .500. Houston is 35-27, and Seattle is 36-26. Within the AL, solely the Blue Jays have extra wins (38) towards groups above .500. That begins to matter in a pennant race, and it is going to be fascinating to see if the Mariners or Astros will dangle on when the stretch will get tougher.

2. Talking of Suárez, ought to there be any concern about his play, or is that this extra only a matter of a small pattern?

Kavner: It’s too small a pattern to panic about, particularly with Seattle nonetheless thriving regardless of his sluggish begin, and it’s attainable he’s attempting to do an excessive amount of proper now in an effort to make an instantaneous impression and whiffing extra within the course of. However it’s not less than one thing to watch, particularly contemplating his pedestrian numbers the final time he was a Mariner, how exhausting it’s to hit at T-Cellular Park and the truth that deadline additions don’t have a lot time to get settled in. It’s been ugly for the primary two weeks, however this may be a part of the Suárez expertise. In his first 11 video games final month, he was hitting .167 with 17 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. Over the subsequent six video games, he homered seven instances. All it takes is one large sport — he has six multi-homer video games this 12 months — and people numbers will look rather a lot completely different. I’d count on a type of to occur quickly. Simply the specter of Suárez’s energy provides extra to the lineup than what they’d beforehand. 

Thosar: It’s a bit too early to essentially be involved about Suarez’s efficiency in Seattle, notably if it’s associated to getting settled in, however I’m starting to marvel if he’s hiding an harm. Suarez was hit on his left hand by a pitch from Shane Smith within the eighth inning of the All-Star Sport, of all locations, after which about 10 days later, he was hit on his proper hand by a 95.6 mph pitch from Tigers right-hander Will Vest. Although X-rays got here again damaging in each cases, Suarez’s numbers have dipped because the All-Star break. It could possibly be price keeping track of, however I’m nonetheless anticipating Suarez to interrupt out on the plate sooner reasonably than later. Although the Mariners would like to win the division, his impression will likely be vastly felt in the course of the playoffs, so he nonetheless has time to both heal up or get right into a groove (or each) for what Seattle hopes will likely be a deep October run.

3. The Guardians are a half-game again of the Yankees for the ultimate AL wild card spot. Can Cleveland capitalize on the Bronx Bombers’ struggles? 

Kavner: On July 28, the Guardians misplaced for the fourth time in 5 video games to fall two video games below .500 on the identical day that star nearer Emmanuel Clase was positioned on go away amid MLB’s playing investigation. Perhaps that was all-time low. Since then, they’ve received 10 of their final 13 video games. They traded away Shane Bieber as he continued the ultimate phases of his Tommy John restoration, however they elected towards a full sell-off on the deadline. Proper now, that call seems to be prudent. Even with out Clase, there’s nonetheless loads of weaponry on the again finish of the bullpen to carry opponents down. (In August alone, Cade Smith is 3-0, 2-for-2 in save possibilities and hasn’t allowed a run). As dangerous because it has been currently within the Bronx, there’s nonetheless in all probability an excessive amount of expertise on this Yankees group to overlook the playoffs. However whereas the Rangers fumble their wild-card alternative, the Guardians, with an offense powered by Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo, aren’t going away. 

Thosar: Who might’ve anticipated Cleveland to be respiratory down the Yankees’ neck when the Bronx Bombers had a seven-game lead within the AL East on the finish of Could? However New York is squandering its alternative to dominate the AL, and the Guardians held off from a full-blow dump on the commerce deadline to remain on this factor. Cleveland is already capitalizing, successful 11 of its final 14 video games and 6 straight collection victories, whereas the Yankees are simply attempting to play a single sport with out committing a vital error. The Guardians’ run has been spectacular, little doubt, particularly when you think about the absence of nearer Emmanuel Clase and the way a lot the supporting solid on offense has stepped up, all whereas Jose Ramirez continues to be the franchise’s greatest participant ever. However, Cleveland has some query marks within the rotation, and I’m not satisfied the offense can carry the membership down the stretch. It nonetheless looks like the Yankees are too gifted, and one scorching stretch away from being dominant and burying the Guardians. 

4. The Mets, just like the Yankees, have floundered and are 5 video games from the Phillies within the NL East. Ought to there be concern at this level that they received’t be a wild card group?

Kavner: Contemplating the Reds are solely half-game behind the Mets for the ultimate wild-card spot and the Phillies have constructed a five-game cushion within the division, there ought to undoubtedly be concern in Queens. Now, I count on the offense to search out one other gear quickly, and I finally suppose the Mets will maintain onto a wild-card spot, however this falloff — 12 losses in 14 video games — is regarding. I belief this rebuilt bullpen to be one of many higher teams within the league, however that received’t matter if the Mets are all the time taking part in from behind. The beginning rotation has fallen dramatically again all the way down to earth after exceeding expectations for a lot of the 12 months. David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes every have an ERA above 7.00 in August. Kodai Senga (5.40 this month) hasn’t been a lot better. As a group, the Mets have a rotation ERA over 7.00 in August. There are some prospects on the farm who might present a lift, and prospect Nolan McLean will get his probability this weekend, however till one or two of the trusted veteran starters discover their type, it’s going to be exhausting to flee this funk. 

Thosar: It could be a whole catastrophe in Queens if the Reds get the ultimate wild-card spot over the Juan Soto-powered Mets. Sadly, the Mets offense hasn’t proven sufficient consistency this season to essentially imagine in them. Mets followers can depend on one hand what number of instances Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Soto have all come by on the prime of the lineup. When Alonso is hitting, Lindor and Soto are ice chilly. When Lindor is hitting, Alonso and Soto are quiet. And now, we’re reaching the tip of Soto’s first season in Queens and he nonetheless hasn’t had his Mets second, developing clutch for the membership the best way he did numerous instances for the Yankees final season. When Soto is on, he’s among the best hitters within the sport — able to carrying an offense to the end line. However that’s simply not the model of himself he’s been this 12 months. Mix these issues with the troubles of New York’s rotation, being unable to pitch deep into video games, and there may be reliable cause to imagine the Mets may fumble a playoff spot. 

5. Rafael Devers is trending again upward, and he has 4 homers in August. Is he lastly settling in with the Giants, albeit in a way more troublesome park for hitters?

Kavner: It definitely seems to be that approach. He has an OPS over .900 in August and, much more promising, an OPS over 1.000 at house this month. He’s not chasing practically as typically as he did early in his Giants tenure, and his anticipated slugging proportion has virtually doubled from July to August. His hard-hit price has additionally climbed as his whiff price has descended. Principally, he seems to be much more just like the participant the Giants anticipated to be including. That’s encouraging for the long run in San Francisco, however much like what we’re seeing now from Michael Harris II in Atlanta, it additionally looks like too little, too late, by way of altering his group’s fortunes this season at 5.5 video games again of a playoff spot. 

Thosar: If Devers is lastly settling in (and it does look that approach), it doesn’t matter a lot for a Giants group that’s three video games below .500 and has a 3.3% probability of creating the playoffs, per FanGraphs. So whereas it’s encouraging to see Devers discover his groove on the plate, at this level, that solely provides the group a greater thought of tips on how to construction its offense to maximise its potential for subsequent season.  

Rowan Kavner is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand lined the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved again to the West Coast in 2014. Comply with him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. She beforehand lined the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Day by day Information. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Lengthy Island and now lives in Queens. Comply with her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar. 

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