Patriots vs. Broncos odds, picks, predictions: Finest bets for AFC championship recreation

[ad_1] The highest-seed within the AFC, the Denver Broncos, will host the No. 2 seed New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon within the AFC championship recreation.

The Broncos prevailed in additional time in a wild divisional spherical recreation in opposition to Josh Allen's Buffalo Payments, successful 33-30 however shedding Bo Nix to a season-ending ankle damage within the course of. The Patriots, as 3.5-point residence favorites, took care of C.J. Stroud and Houston Texans by a 28-16 rating and beating the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 within the wild-card spherical.

Commercial

Is that this the place the bounceback season ends for Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel in New England? Can backup Jarrett Stidham do sufficient to assist a vaunted Denver protection attain a Tremendous Bowl?

Ben Fawkes gathers perception from oddsmakers for the sport, and our staff of NFL handicappers gives its favourite wagers on Sunday's matchup.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

What oddsmakers are saying "We opened Patriots -5.5, I'd’ve had Patriots -1.5 with Nix beginning. To me, that is precisely what was referred to as for, since I really feel just like the distinction is near 4 factors ATS from Nix to Stidham. Presently, sitting at New England -5 and a complete of 42. We opened the whole 40.5, just about the entire cash on the whole has been on the over. Early motion on the aspect has been individuals prepared to put factors with New England, however more cash has are available on the Denver cash line. From a futures standpoint, we're in a fine condition to each." — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata

Commercial

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

"We opened Patriots -4.5, went up -5.5, now again all the way down to -4.5. These are two very defensive-focused groups, however you place in new QB, you additionally improve the possibilities of an interception or turnovers. Complete in all probability would’ve been 43.5, opened 40.5, sharp motion pushed it to 42.5. How a lot is Bo Nix value to this line? We in all probability made him 4.5 to five.5 factors of worth, however the market is pricing him nearer to six. I wouldn’t be shocked to see sharp cash on Broncos as we get nearer to recreation time." — Joey Feazel, head of NFL buying and selling at Caesars Sportsbook

Finest bets Matt Jacob: In the course of the common season, the Patriots confronted three opponents that certified for the playoffs: Pittsburgh, Carolina and AFC East rival Buffalo (twice).

Commercial

The Patriots break up residence video games in consecutive weeks in opposition to the Steelers (21-14 loss in Week 3) and Panthers (42-13 win in Week 4). Then they went to Buffalo in Week 5 and scored a 23-20 upset win, solely to lose the Week 15 rematch 35-31 (after squandering 24-7 halftime lead).

So in 18 weeks, New England performed precisely one highway recreation in opposition to a playoff staff. To be truthful, the Pats received that recreation — a part of an ideal 8-0 highway report. However take a look at the competitors (and the outcomes).

New England throttled two horrible groups (Tennessee and the New York Jets) by a mixed rating of 73-23. The victory margins in its different six highway triumphs: 6 factors (Miami), 6 factors (New Orleans), 6 factors (Cincinnati) 5 factors (Tampa Bay), 4 factors (Baltimore) and three factors (Buffalo).

Now is an efficient time to say that the Patriots not solely confronted simply three playoff groups within the common season, however the Payments (11-6) and Steelers (10-7) are the one two that completed with successful information.

Commercial

So why is New England a 5-point highway favourite within the AFC Championship Sport in opposition to a Broncos squad that went 14-3 within the common season (identical because the Patriots), 8-1 at residence and earned the No. 1 seed and first-round bye?

I get it: Nix (ankle) is out and Stidham is in. It’s lower than excellent for the house aspect. However Stidham has spent the previous two seasons in Denver. He is aware of Sean Payton’s offense. And he received each single first-string rep in observe this week.

Most significantly, Stidham shall be supported by a ferocious protection that ranked second within the NFL in yards allowed, third in factors allowed and recorded 11 extra sacks than some other staff.

Commercial

On Sunday, that protection shall be getting after a sophomore quarterback making his first postseason highway begin — a QB who was sacked 47 occasions within the common season, 10 extra occasions in two playoff video games and fumbled 14 occasions (with six coming within the final two weeks).

Overlook the factors. The Broncos are successful this outright.

Guess: Broncos cash line (+210)

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

Jacob: If I imagine that Denver will spring the upset in Sunday’s AFC championship recreation, it means I additionally imagine that Stidham will meet the second. As a result of you realize precisely how Vrabel goes to scheme this recreation defensively: load the field, cease the run and dare Stidham to win the sport together with his arm.

Commercial

In different phrases, Vrabel will get to make the primary chess transfer. And I’m assured that his counterpart — Broncos coach Sean Payton — will reply to that transfer by letting Stidham wing it. Truthfully, Payton doesn’t have a lot of a alternative.

For one factor, even with Bo Nix beneath heart, the Broncos struggled to run the soccer all season. Past that, the Patriots’ defensive power is stopping the run — which they proved in playoff wins over the Chargers (22 carries, 87 yards) and Texans (22 carries, 48 yards).

So count on Stidham to place the ball within the air usually and count on him to have success — simply as he did in every of his 4 NFL begins: 36 passes, 219 yards; 32 passes, 224 yards; 34 passes, 272 yards; 34 passes, 365 yards.

Bets: Jarrett Stidham over 31.5 cross makes an attempt (-120); Jarrett Stidham over 192.5 passing yards (-115)

Jacob: A fast test of the field scores reveals an Achilles’ heel for Denver’s in any other case sensational protection: It struggles to comprise tight ends.

Commercial

Within the final eight video games, the next tight ends have discovered area in opposition to the Broncos:

Kansas Metropolis’s Travis Kelce (9 catches in Week 11; 5 catches in Week 17); Washington’s Zach Ertz (10 catches in Week 13); the Raiders’ Brock Bowers (4 catches in Week 14); Inexperienced Bay’s Luke Musgrave (4 catches in Week 15); Jacksonville’s Brenton Unusual (5 catches in Week 16); and Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid (six catches within the AFC divisional playoffs).

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

Throughout this two-month stretch, solely Chargers tight finish Oronde Gadsden Jr. failed to provide — he had two receptions in Week 18. In fact, Gadsden’s QB that day was Trey Lance, not Justin Herbert.

Commercial

Though Maye and tight finish Hunter Henry related simply 4 occasions in two playoff video games, I count on the duo to take advantage of this obvious weak spot within the Broncos’ protection.