Polish knife-edge presidential vote pits liberal mayor towards conservative

[ad_1] Adam Easton BBC Warsaw correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bf24/live/31f734f0-3cbf-11f0-af00-f94ff1cabcc0.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters Supporters of Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowsk watch a final debate with Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki on 23 May" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Rafal Trzaskowski (L) has a slim lead within the polls over nationwide conservative historian Karol Nawrocki (R)

Poles will vote for a brand new president on Sunday in a decent election that can have main penalties for the way forward for the nation's pro-EU authorities.

Opinion polls say Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and nationwide conservative historian Karol Nawrocki are operating neck and neck.

Poland's president is a largely ceremonial position, nevertheless it does include vital unfavorable energy.

The president has the suitable to veto laws, and the coalition authorities lacks a large enough parliamentary majority to overturn it.

Karol Nawrocki is a staunch opponent of Donald Tusk's coalition, and he's anticipated to make use of the veto as a lot if no more regularly than the incumbent conservative President Andrzej Duda, who can not run for a 3rd consecutive time period.

Tusk has been unable to ship lots of his marketing campaign guarantees since taking workplace 18 months in the past because of Duda's veto and divisions inside his coalition which incorporates conservatives, centrists and leftists.

Tusk promised Polish ladies authorized abortion as much as the twelfth week of being pregnant and voters he would restore the rule of regulation within the judiciary.

Many critics say Poland's prime courts have been politicised beneath the earlier Regulation and Justice-led (PiS) authorities that misplaced energy in late 2023.

On each points, Tusk has made little headway.

After narrowly profitable the election's first spherical on 18 Could, Rafal Trzaskowski pledged to co-operate with the federal government to perform each.

Whichever candidate mobilises their voters in Sunday's second spherical run-off shall be key to who turns into the subsequent president.

One other vital issue is who can entice the votes of two far-right candidates who positioned third and fourth within the first spherical.

The anti-establishment candidates obtained 3 times as many votes as they did within the final presidential election in 2020.

Whereas these voters assist Nawrocki's socially conservative views, some libertarians disagree along with his assist for beneficiant state advantages for the much less well-off.

Each candidates led giant, rival patriotic marches in Warsaw final Sunday to point out who had the most important assist.

Virtually all of the members at Nawrocki's rally carried the red-and-white Polish flag. No-one had the blue EU flag. One banner learn "Sufficient of Tusk's [demolition] of democracy".

Magdalena and her sister Marta mentioned Nawrocki's patriotism was vital. "We care first for our household, then the nation and after that the world," Magdalena instructed me.

"Numerous politicians say, 'Oh, we will not do this as a result of what's going to the Germans take into consideration us?' Sorry, I do not care what they assume," she mentioned.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/328d/live/184891e0-3cbd-11f0-87b5-51c52fdf5c4b.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Poland's conservative presidential candidate addresses supporters wearing a black jacket alongside a woman" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures Karol Nawrocki attended a rally in Katowice on Thursday evening

Karol Nawrocki, 42, is head of the Institute of Nationwide Remembrance, a state physique that investigates crimes courting again to the communist period and World Struggle Two. He was comparatively unknown nationally earlier than he was picked by PiS to run.

In line with the CBOS polling firm, voters view him as somebody who helps conventional Catholic values and stands up for common Poles, together with small farmers who contemplate themselves threatened by the EU's Inexperienced Deal limiting using chemical compounds and greenhouse gases.

His typical voter is seen as aged over 40, conservative and family-oriented and residing within the countryside or small cities and cities.

Beforehand he was director of the Museum of the Second World Struggle in Gdansk the place he modified the exhibition to emphasize Polish heroism and struggling throughout the battle.

A eager novice footballer and boxer, he likes to publish pictures of himself figuring out on social media.

His strongman picture has been pushed by Polish and international politicians alike. Ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki posting a mock-up of Nawrocki as a Polish Captain America on social media.

Supporter Magdalena mentioned he wasn't significantly charismatic, however Poland wanted "a powerful man who shall be secure when he is pushed by the world".

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/900f/live/96194bc0-3cb6-11f0-b230-3fff4698524a.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem shakes hands with Nawrocki" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures US Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem met Nawrocki on the sidelines of the Conservative Political Motion Convention

Earlier this week, US Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem flew to a Conservative Political Motion Convention (CPAC) in Poland to endorse him as a "sturdy chief" like President Donald Trump.

"I simply had the chance to fulfill with Karol and hear, he must be the subsequent president of Poland," she mentioned 5 days forward of the vote.

Noem mentioned his rival Trzaskowski was "an absolute practice wreck of a frontrunner".

Nawrocki's marketing campaign has been bedevilled by revelations from his comparatively unknown previous, though to date the allegations seem to not have broken his assist.

He doesn't deny participating in soccer hooligan brawls, and has referred to as them "noble fights". However in that he's not alone, as a number of years in the past Donald Tusk spoke of participating in comparable fights as a younger man.

Nonetheless he has strongly denied a collection of different allegations - that he had hyperlinks with gangsters and neo-Nazis; that he took benefit of an ailing senior citizen to accumulate his council flat at an enormous low cost; and that he helped prepare prostitutes for visitors on the luxurious Grand Resort within the seaside resort of Sopot when he labored there as a safety guard.

Nawrocki has mentioned he'll donate the flat to charity and threatened to sue the information web site that printed the prostitute story as a result of it was a "pack of lies".

A lot of his supporters assume the the tales have been made up by the mainstream media, which they see as largely pro-Trzaskowski.

Shaking off the revelations, Nawrocki posted a video on social media set to an previous Chumbawamba music, with the refrain, "I get knocked down, however I rise up once more".

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/584e/live/b291a710-3cc1-11f0-9ac3-a56a073b5349.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Anadolu via Getty Images Wearing a dark coat and tie, Rafal Trzaskowski, is surrounded by red and white flags" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Anadolu by way of Getty Pictures Rafal Trzaskowski has portrayed himself as a person who believes in a powerful nation state

Trzaskowski's supporters have been extra inclined to imagine the allegations, with one man in Warsaw holding a banner studying: "No to the gangster".

The son of a well-known jazz pianist, the 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw is deputy chief of Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Platform get together.

He's additionally speaks a number of languages who as soon as served as Europe minister.

He was joined in final Sunday's march in Warsaw by one other liberal mayor who gained the Romanian presidency earlier this month. Nicusur Dan instructed supporters they shared the identical values of a united and robust European Union.

In line with CBOS, Trzaskowski's typical voter is in his 30s, pretty well-off and lives in a metropolis. Voters see him as having left-liberal views supporting LGBT and migrants' rights.

Whereas his opponents see Trzaskowski as a part of Poland's privileged elite, supporter Malgorzata, a statistician, instructed me he was "an clever, skilled European. That is sufficient to be a president of Poland".

Towards a backdrop of conflict in neighbouring Ukraine and the Tusk authorities's powerful stance towards unlawful migration, Trzaskowski has portrayed himself, artificially in line with some voters, as a person who believes in a powerful nation state and patriotism.

One other supporter, Bartosz, mentioned he wished Poland to stay safely anchored in Europe.

"We all know historical past. In 1939, we counted on Britain and France, however no one got here. If we're companions with Europe politically and economically, then it is of their pursuits to assist us," he mentioned.