Rafal Trzaskowski, Warsaw's liberal mayor, leads after first spherical

[ad_1] Adam Easton BBC Warsaw correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d763/live/73f58240-3421-11f0-8aba-d70614ebb2d5.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the presidential candidate of the Civic Coalition reacts to the exit poll for the first round of Poland's presidential election, in Sandomierz, Poland, May 18, 2025." class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Reuters Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski was narrowly forward of his conservative rival in response to a ballot launched when voting ended

Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski gained a slender victory in Poland's presidential election, in response to an exit ballot, however a second-round run-off with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki might be required to resolve the nation's subsequent president.

Based on the ballot launched when voting ended, Trzaskowski, a deputy chief of prime minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Platform (PO) get together, gained 30.8% of the votes.

Nawrocki got here second with 29.1% of the votes.

If the ballot is confirmed by the ultimate official outcome – not anticipated till late Monday – Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will compete in a second-round on 1 June as not one of the 13 candidates gained greater than 50% of the vote.

Trzaskowski informed his supporters at a rally in Sandomierz, southern Poland: "We'll win." However he stated a number of work and "nice willpower" could be wanted.

"I am satisfied that each one Poland will win," he stated.

He pledged to cooperate with prime minister Tusk's coalition to liberalise the nation's strict abortion regulation and speed up reform of the Polish judiciary, which was broadly seen to have been politicised by the earlier PiS-led authorities.

Trzaskowski carried out worse than opinion polls predicted earlier than the vote, which had him between 4%-6% forward of Nawrocki.

Poland's president has largely ceremonial powers however she or he is ready to veto authorities laws. Tusk's coalition doesn't have a large enough parliamentary majority to overturn a presidential veto.

Tusk has did not ship a lot of his marketing campaign guarantees, partly as a result of the incumbent conservative president Andrzej Duda has vetoed his authorities's laws, but additionally as a consequence of divisions inside the coalition over points like abortion and civil partnerships.

A victory for Trzaskowski would take away the president's veto, however Nawrocki would doubtless be a good more durable impediment than Duda.

Nawrocki informed his supporters in Gdansk that Tusk have to be stopped from successful whole energy in Poland.

He known as on supporters of two far-right candidates, Slawomir Mentzen, who got here third and gained 15.4%, and of Grzegorz Braun, who got here fourth and gained 6.2%, to "save Poland" from Tusk.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ea51/live/d3b0d800-3422-11f0-b7fb-5376892fcf9f.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Karol Nawrocki, a non-partisan Presidential candidate supported by the right wing Law and Justice Party casting his vote during the presidential election on May 18, 2025 in Gdansk, Poland" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Getty Photographs Karol Nawocki, a conservative historian, got here in second with 29.1% of the vote, in response to the exit ballot

Loads will rely upon which candidate can mobilise their voters within the second spherical.

Nawrocki was unknown on a nationwide scale earlier than Regulation and Justice (PiS) selected him as its candidate. However he has improved on the job, and PiS is historically good at getting their vote out.

Trzaskowski might want to win the votes of supporters of his centrist get together, but additionally these supporting the candidates of the junior coalition companions, the Left (Magdalena Biejat) and conservative Third Manner (Szymon Holownia).

One other fear for Trzaskowski is the higher than anticipated results of far-right candidates as a result of a lot of their supporters won't vote for him.

Mentzen's outcome was a robust exhibiting and continued the development of his far-right Confederation get together because it entered parliament in 2019.

Who will his, primarily younger voters, again within the run-off?

Many would assist Nawrocki for his Catholic, family-oriented views, however they dislike PiS's left-wing financial coverage of beneficiant state advantages.

Mentzen is an anti-establishment candidate, and a few of his supporters might not need to vote for both Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, who signify the 2 events which have dominated Polish politics for twenty years.

Far-right MEP, Grzegorz Braun's outcome was a nasty shock for Poland's liberal voters.

Braun made headlines in 2023 when he put out the candles on a Jewish menorah within the Polish parliament with a hearth extinguisher following a ceremony for the competition of Hanukkah.

Braun known as the competition "satanic". Throughout a presidential debate final month he stated: "Jews have far an excessive amount of say in Polish affairs."