Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, Dec. 15, 2025

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US, Ukrainian, and European officers reportedly agreed on unspecified safety ensures for Ukraine throughout a peace negotiation assembly in Berlin, Germany, on December 15. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian Protection Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, US Particular Envoy to the Center East Steve Witkoff, and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner met in Berlin, Germany, on December 15 to proceed negotiations for a potential peace deal to finish Russia’s struggle in Ukraine.[1] Two US officers advised the New York Occasions (NYT) on December 15 that the USA, Ukraine, and Europe agreed on a “NATO-like” safety assure for the long run safety of Ukraine.[2] The US officers said that almost all of the December 14 to fifteen negotiations pertained to safety ensures, though the officers didn’t elaborate on specifics. The Kremlin has constantly indicated that it’ll reject any peace offers that provide dependable safety ensures for Ukraine, and is extremely unlikely to just accept a settlement that comprises any provisions safeguarding Ukrainian territorial integrity.[3] The Kremlin notably successfully rejected the availability of dependable safety ensures for Ukraine as outlined within the US-proposed 28-point peace plan.[4]

Zelensky said on December 15 that discussions regarding territorial points are ongoing, and the 2 US officers cited by NYT reported that Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably want to debate and resolve upon the matter of territorial agreements themselves.[5] Putin has constantly declined to fulfill with Zelensky, together with throughout the lead as much as the total scale invasion and through a number of subsequent iterations of peace negotiations.[6] Russia has beforehand tried to safe untenable territorial concessions from Ukraine that embrace Ukraine’s Fortress Belt, the fortified line of defense in Donetsk Oblast that has served because the spine of Ukraine’s defenses since 2014.[7] Ukraine’s concession of its most dear protection line into the fingers of the Kremlin would offer Russia with extra advantageous positions to resume aggression towards southwestern and central Ukraine sooner or later.[8] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia will use political and army means to attain its said aim of seizing all of Ukraine and that Russia is due to this fact unlikely to just accept a peace deal or safety ensures that don’t grant full Russian management of Ukraine within the intermediate to long run future.[9]

Ukrainian forces carried out an unmanned underwater car (UUV) strike towards a Russian submarine for the primary time in naval historical past on the evening of December 14 to fifteen. The Ukrainian Safety Service (SBU) printed footage on December 15, which was later geolocated, exhibiting Ukrainian “Sub Sea Child” UUVs strike a Russian Undertaking 636 Varshavyanka-class (NATO Kilo-class) submarine docked on the Novorossiysk Naval Base in Krasnodar Krai, inflicting explosions and demanding harm to the submarine.[10] The SBU famous that the submarine was geared up with 4 Kalibr cruise missile launchers that Russia used to strike Ukraine and that the harm could have pressured Russian forces to cease working the submarine. Planet Labs satellite tv for pc imagery captured on December 5 exhibits that two Kilo-class submarines had been current on the Novorossiysk Naval Base as of December 5, and lower-resolution imagery captured on December 11 signifies that a minimum of one Kilo-class submarine was current on the base as of December 11. Nationwide Aeronautics and House Administration Fireplace Data for Useful resource Administration System (NASA FIRMS) knowledge printed on December 15 signifies that there have been fires close to the Novorossiysk Naval Base.[11] Russian forces beforehand docked Kilo-class submarines in occupied Crimea and the Sevastopol port however started withdrawing them from the western Black Sea and transferring them to Novorossiysk in October 2023 attributable to a profitable Ukrainian strike marketing campaign towards Russian Black Sea Fleet belongings.[12] Russia makes use of Kilo-class submarines to conduct Kalibr cruise missile strikes towards Ukraine, primarily Odesa Oblast, and the Ukrainian strike probably supposed to degrade Russia’s capacity to focus on Odesa Oblast with Kalibr missiles. Ukraine’s strike towards the Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk exhibits that Ukrainian forces proceed to modernize and optimize their unmanned capabilities such that Ukraine can strike Russian army targets at a spread that Russian forces beforehand thought secure.

Ukrainian forces proceed counterattacking within the Kupyansk course as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers acknowledge the severity of the state of affairs for Russian forces. Ukrainian Joint Forces Group Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on December 15 that Ukrainian forces proceed clearing operations inside Kupyansk and are avoiding partaking in city fight, and that Russian forces are utilizing unmanned aerial autos (UAVs) to provide the grouping of round 100 to200 Russian personnel left inside Kupyansk.[13] Trehubov implied that the Russian forces’ logistical state of affairs is sophisticated in Kupyansk as a result of UAVs have a restricted carrying capability, can’t fly over sure areas, and sometimes drop provides in a approach that exposes Russian positions to Ukrainian forces. A non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Kupyansk course reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated a number of settlements and close by forest areas, and that parts of his brigade are working inside northern Kupyansk.[14] The NCO said that Russian forces proceed trying infiltration missions to strengthen positions in Kupyansk by way of a fuel pipeline, however that Ukrainian forces have blocked the pipeline and have all attainable egress factors underneath hearth management. Geolocated footage printed on December 14 and 15 signifies that Russian forces probably don’t maintain positions inside Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk), opposite to Russian claims of advances within the space.[15]

Russian milbloggers continued to acknowledge that the state of affairs for Russian forces in Kupyansk is deteriorating.[16] A milblogger claimed that Russian forces maintain some positions in northern and central Kupyansk however that the remainder of the town is both a contested “grey zone” or Ukrainian held.[17] One other milblogger claimed that the state of affairs for Russian forces in western Kupyansk is quickly worsening; that parts of the Russian 68th Motorized Rifle Division (sixth Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Leningrad Navy District [LMD]) are “desperately combating” and acknowledged that Ukrainian forces superior inside Kupyansk and Myrove (instantly northwest of Kupyansk).[18] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces not have manpower superiority within the space and that Ukrainian interdiction efforts are hindering Russian operations. The milblogger said that Ukrainian good points in Kupyansk have pressured Russian drone operators to withdraw from the realm to the east (left) financial institution of the Oskil River. The Kremlin has been leveraging claims of advances in and close to Kupyansk for a cognitive warfare effort designed to painting the Ukrainian strains as on the breaking point such that Ukraine and the West ought to concede to Russia’s calls for, and the Ukrainian counterattacks within the Kupyansk course proceed to reveal that.[19]

Russian forces are placing Ukrainian logistics strains in Odesa Oblast with varied air launched munitions, together with glide bombs, highlighting Ukraine’s pressing want for a nicely provisioned and various air protection umbrella. Geolocated footage printed on December 15 exhibits Russian lengthy vary drones and glide bombs placing a bridge on the P-70 Odesa Metropolis- Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi freeway over the Dneister River in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, on December 14.[20] Russian milbloggers claimed on December 14 that Russian forces struck a railway bridge close to Zatoka with glide bombs and Geran (Shahed) drones, and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on December 15 that the Russian strikes utterly destroyed the bridge.[21] Extra geolocated footage printed on December 15 exhibits Russian drones placing the Odeska railway bridge over the Sarata River in southern Sarata, Odesa Oblast.[22] Russian forces have just lately intensified strikes towards Odesa Oblast in parallel with intensified Kremlin rhetorical threats.[23] The Russian use of glide bombs as a part of their strike packages towards Odesa Oblast is notable, as they permit Russian forces to trigger harm to Ukrainian logistical infrastructure with comparatively cheaper munitions.[24] Russian forces should nonetheless use costly manned plane to launch these glide bombs, which makes the plane susceptible to the specter of Ukrainian air defenses, forcing Russia to weigh the stability of utilizing cheaper munitions on the expense of its extra beautiful plane techniques. The rise in guided glide bomb assaults towards Odesa Oblast highlights the truth that Ukraine urgently wants a holistic air protection umbrella that enables it to down manned plane, missiles, and drones alike.

Russian strikes look like advancing the Kremlin’s said aim of degrading Ukraine’s vitality infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s energy grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air protection techniques and companion assist for its drone interceptor growth to safeguard itself towards more and more devastating strikes on its vitality infrastructure. A number of folks aware of the state of affairs advised the Washington Publish on December 15 that Russian strikes threaten to utterly disable transmission techniques that transfer electrical energy from the western half of Ukraine, which shops most of Ukraine’s electrical energy, to japanese Ukraine.[25] The Washington Publish‘s sources famous that Russian strikes might successfully break up Ukraine’s vitality grid into two elements alongside an east-west divide. ISW beforehand reported on Russian efforts to generate a west-east break up within the Ukrainian energy grid.[26] An nameless senior European diplomat advised the Washington Publish that japanese Ukraine is “on the brink” of a whole blackout, and one other particular person aware of the vitality disaster said that Kyiv Metropolis may additionally endure a full blackout. The European diplomat additionally said that Russian forces are trying to create vitality islands in particular person Ukrainian oblasts, successfully slicing off particular person areas from any electrical energy technology, deliveries, and transmission techniques. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s vitality grid operator Ukrenergo advised the Washington Publish that Russian forces launched eight huge, mixed missile and drone strikes towards Ukrainian vitality infrastructure between October and December 2025, notably focusing on electrical energy and distribution infrastructure. Ukrainian vitality skilled Volodymyr Omelchenko said that Russian forces launch common mixed strikes each seven to 10 days to maximise vitality deficits and goal infrastructure that’s present process repairs after the earlier strike.[27] Omelchenko famous that Russian forces are always focusing on vitality distribution infrastructure in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odesa oblasts.

Russian forces launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October 2025, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November 2025, and a couple of,757 drones and 91 missiles in December 2025 as of December 15.[28] ISW has beforehand noticed reviews that Russian forces are partaking in a large-scale strike marketing campaign that targets one or two particular areas in fast succession to degrade Ukraine’s capacity to restore vitality infrastructure quickly.[29] Russian forces additionally give attention to focusing on completely different parts of Ukraine’s vitality infrastructure, together with substations, to systematically destroy the complete Ukrainian vitality ecosystem and complicate Ukraine’s capacity to deal with focused areas, elongating durations with out energy.[30] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia‘s more and more massive strike packages spotlight the crucial significance of Western help in bolstering Ukraine’s air protection capabilities, notably with subsidies for Ukrainian packages that concentrate on air protection improvements corresponding to Ukraine’s drone interceptor packages.