The geopolitics rattling a tiny Pacific nation

[ad_1] Shawn Yuan World China Unit, in Palau

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ed97/live/1d1f1b80-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="BBC The US plans to upgrade Malakal Harbour, Palau's main port, to accommodate the entry of larger military vessels, part of an escalation of US military presence in the Pacific nation" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> BBC Malakal Harbour, Palau's principal port

The air above Palau's pristine waters smells of salt and breadfruit, and on calm mornings in Koror, Palau's business centre, the whirr of dive boat engines echoes throughout the bay.

A number of years in the past, these boats have been full of vacationers – many from China – drawn to Palau's lagoons and limestone caves. Inns have been full, eating places bustling, and fishermen may barely sustain with demand. However that's no extra.

The increase – and the abrupt collapse – was no accident. Between 2015 and 2017, Chinese language vacationers made up round half of its guests. Then, in 2017, Beijing reportedly ordered tour operators to cease promoting packages to Palau, slashing the primary supply of tourism to the islands on the time.

"I truly purchased new boats to accommodate the sudden enhance of vacationers," stated a dive store proprietor in Koror. However after the tourism peak, he stated, these boats had been "sitting idle within the bay" and it took them years simply to make again the cash they spent.

The message was clear, Palauan officers allege. They are saying that China had used its huge outbound tourism market as a part of a broader marketing campaign to attempt to peel Palau away from recognising Taiwan - and into Beijing's orbit.

The BBC reached out to China's overseas ministry for remark however has not obtained a response. China has, nonetheless, previously repeatedly denied utilizing tourism as political leverage.

Palau is one in every of solely a dozen nations that also recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state. This challenges a key pillar of China's overseas coverage, the "one China precept", by which Beijing asserts sovereignty over Taiwan.

However it's not nearly a diplomatic tug of warfare.

Palau's location makes it a fascinating goal for affect from the world's largest powers. It sits on the so-called "Second Island Chain" – a string of outposts the US sees as essential to containing China's army enlargement and responding to any aggression within the western Pacific.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/b458/live/a72f3e40-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Second Island Chain, a stretch of islands in the western Pacific that the US sees as vital in containing Chinese navy expansion in the region" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Palau sits on the so-called "Second Island Chain"

Palau and the US have a protracted historical past of partnership: earlier than its independence in 1994, Palau was a US-administered territory.

Beneath an settlement generally known as the Compact of Free Affiliation, Palau provides the US unique army entry in alternate for Washington's in depth assist, together with Palauan residents' potential to reside and work freely within the US.

Working below the phrases of the Compact, the US is now strengthening its personal army footprint within the archipelago.

This geopolitical energy battle between China, Taiwan, and the US is cascading down into the each day lives of this tiny nation of fewer than 20,000 folks.

"It doesn't matter what we do, Palau goes to be the centre of any army exercise due to our location," Palau's President, Surangel Whipps Jr. instructed the BBC.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7cfb/live/d9fdd5c0-c606-11f0-a892-01d657345866.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Palau's president, Surangel Whipps Jr., says China is using tourism as a political tool to pressure his country to sever ties with Taiwan" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Palau's president, Surangel Whipps Jr.

A prize within the Pacific

Palau's relationship with Taiwan runs deep.

When Palau turned unbiased in 1994, Taiwan moved quick to safe a diplomatic ally, in line with Cheng-Cheng Li, an assistant professor at Nationwide Dong Hwa College in Hualien, Taiwan, who has carried out in depth analysis on Taiwan-Palau relations.

Taiwan's help to it has been hands-on: agricultural consultants working aspect by aspect with locals, medical groups in small clinics, funding for native entrepreneurs, and welcoming college students to Taiwan on scholarships.

For a rustic with a small inhabitants the place community-based service performs a central position, Taiwan has been described as a "dependable associate" and a "trusted buddy" by many Palauan officers.

Taiwan's ambassador to Palau, Jessica Lee, instructed the BBC that native leaders had assured her that the connection was "strong as a rock till loss of life do us half."

Nonetheless, Taiwan has cause to fret. In recent times, China has peeled away a number of of its former allies. Within the Pacific area alone, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru have severed their diplomatic ties with it and switched to Beijing since 2019.

Beijing sees the democratically ruled island of Taiwan as a breakaway province that can, ultimately, be a part of the nation, and has not dominated out the usage of drive to realize this.

Controlling Taiwan is important to Chinese language chief Xi Jinping's purpose of reversing what he known as China's "century of humiliation" by colonial powers, in line with analysts.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cde2/live/c9ebf440-c607-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt=""One Stop Shop", a government building donated by Taiwan, hosts many government offices, including the President's office" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> "One Cease Store," a authorities constructing in Palau, donated by Taiwan

"Each the US and Taiwan are paranoid and jumpy about Palau switching," stated Graeme Smith, a senior fellow on the Australian Nationwide College. "They will put lots of assets into ensuring it does not occur."

Officers in each Palau and Taiwan say Beijing has pulled on a spread of levers to affect Palau's diplomatic place.

After he took workplace in 2021, Palau's president publicly claimed that China supplied "one million" vacationers in alternate for Palau to this finish. He refused.

Then in 2024, China's overseas ministry issued a security alert, advising Chinese language nationals to "train warning" when travelling to Palau.

"If China makes use of tourism as a weapon, then it is an unstable market that we should not rely upon," President Whipps Jr. instructed the BBC. "If China needs a relationship with Palau, they will, however they can't inform us we can not have a relationship with Taiwan."

China, nonetheless, denies utilizing tourism as a political instrument.

In an opinion printed final 12 months within the Folks's Every day, the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist celebration, the paper acknowledged that China's intention when issuing the alert was to guard its abroad residents in gentle of the "rising public safety instances in Palau". It added that the accusations from the president have been an try to smear China and intervene in its home affairs.

When requested in 2017 concerning the banning of tour teams, China's overseas ministry spokesperson stated that he "had not heard concerning the scenario".

However in 2024, responding to Palau's continued recognition of Taiwan, the ministry urged Palau to "make the right selections that conform to their very own... pursuits".

While China has not commented on the alleged provide of one million vacationers, not everybody agrees with President Whipps Jr.'s evaluation. Many locals who spoke with the BBC do not share the president's view on tourism.

"He is very hawkish in the direction of China," stated Pai Lee, the Taiwanese proprietor of a resort in Koror. "I do not suppose it is right to say that China 'weaponised' tourism – they're merely utilizing this as a bargaining chip, identical to how folks play chess and nations do it on a regular basis."

In any case, the legacy of the sudden tourism swing stays seen.

The financial shock after the suspension of tour teams was sharp, however so was the environmental toll of the sudden inflow of vacationers itself. Palau, in line with environmental safety organisations, was not prepared for mass tourism.

"After the top of the explosion of Chinese language tourism, I went there and the corals have been lifeless," stated Ann Singeo, director of the Ebiil Society, an area NGO.

"You'd see [hundreds of] folks on this little cove, all standing on corals. That was the worth we paid as a result of we did not have guidelines in place to make use of these assets respectfully."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bdb9/live/42a176a0-c6ba-11f0-9fb5-5f3a3703a365.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Palau boasts a stunning landscape with some of the best preserved corals along its coastline" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Aerial shot of Rock Islands, Koror, Palau

Tourism is only one a part of China's alleged playbook. Beijing has additionally been attempting to strengthen relationships with native leaders: Palauan officers say they've repeatedly been invited to Beijing for visits.

On one such go to, a former Palauan governor stated he requested why Taiwan could not grow to be unbiased.

"Taiwan is a part of China", replied a Chinese language Communist Social gathering official, trying livid.

The US issue

With China's intensifying army actions round Taiwan, together with air and sea patrols, the US has claimed that China is readying its army to be able to invading it.

To comprise China's potential aggression in the direction of Taiwan and total army actions within the western Pacific, the US has ramped up its personal army infrastructure buildup in Palau.

Over time, Washington has been upgrading airstrips, constructing Tactical Multi-Mission Over-the-horizon Radar system (Tacmor) used to watch army actions within the Pacific, and planning on increasing Malakal Harbour, Palau's principal port, to accommodate bigger army vessels.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c21a/live/2b0a1370-c6bb-11f0-8c06-f5d460985095.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="The US has been building a long-range radar system in Palau to monitor military activities across the western Pacific" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Subject cleared for development for Tacmor receiver web site in Angaur, Palau

Nevertheless, the US has expressed concern over a specific vulnerability: land acquisition.

Paperwork seen by the BBC present that a number of Chinese language companies have leased land and developed properties shut to those websites, from undeveloped land to motels overlooking the harbour and Palau's principal airport.

In Angaur, a southern state of Palau, for instance, the US is now constructing the receiver web site of Tacmor – the plan was introduced in 2017. Nevertheless, in 2019 and 2020, Chinese language buyers leased land protecting over 350,000 sq. metres following the announcement of radar development.

One investor, Zhuang Cizhong, proposed constructing a resort there.

"We went to go to his firm in China, and he laid out a plan for a retirement residence for wealthy Chinese language," stated the previous governor of Angaur, Marvin Ngirutang, who believes Palau's authorities ought to work extra intently with China. "There have been booklets of blueprints – it seemed respectable."

The mission was by no means constructed. Zhuang blamed Covid-19, however Washington stays cautious. The US ambassador in Palau couldn't be reached for remark, however he has beforehand voiced his considerations.

"Throughout there are numerous plots of land now leased to Chinese language pursuits," US ambassador Joel Ehrendreich instructed Reuters. "I do not suppose it is any coincidence that it occurs to be bodily near our tasks."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1753/live/44eac540-c608-11f0-a892-01d657345866.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Chinese businesses have leased land close to US military sites, raising concern in Washington on the purpose of these land leases" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Map illustrating Chinese language land leases and US army websites in Angaur, Palau

Such worries are shared regionally.

"The priority is that these investments or leases usually are not respectable companies," stated Jennifer Anson, Palau's nationwide safety advisor. "Perhaps on the surface, however when the time comes that China invades Taiwan, these might be reworked into army websites."

Chinese language media experiences, nonetheless, counsel that there have been respectable causes to push for companies to spend money on Palau. In 2019, Phoenix Information, a state-affiliated broadcaster, extolled the virtues of shopping for property in Palau, citing plentiful tourism assets and relaxed laws.

The BBC is unable to contact Zhuang. China's overseas ministry didn't reply to requests for touch upon issues associated to land leases.

Within the shadows of a diplomatic void

Chinese language-linked organised crime has additionally proliferated since 2018, in line with authorities in Palau. President Whipps Jr. stated that there was a "fixed battle occurring" as he pointed to crimes linked to China, together with scamming, unlawful casinos, and cyberattacks.

Some officers declare criminals have exploited the shortage of diplomatic ties between China and Palau.

Wan Kuok Koi, generally known as "Damaged Tooth," who led the notorious Macau-based 14k triad, for instance, entered Palau as a overseas investor in 2018. The crime syndicate later engaged in bribery, corruption and on-line playing in nations together with Palau.

Moreover, in 2025, the US Treasury sanctioned a number of people in Palau for his or her hyperlinks to the Prince Group, a Chinese language-run conglomerate. The group has been accused of scamming, cash laundering, industrial-scale human trafficking, amongst different crimes.

Prince Group didn't reply to the BBC's request for remark, however has beforehand "categorically" denied having engaged in "any illegal exercise," in line with the corporate's assertion following the US sanction.

Many of those people have been positioned on Palau's personal "undesirable alien listing", and in line with Ms. Anson from Palau's nationwide safety workplace, they're banking on China's incapacity to hunt them down due to the shortage of diplomatic relations.

"Whenever you trawl Chinese language diaspora websites in Cambodia, the place the knowledge of relocating to Palau is typically debated, the criminals themselves are drawn by the shortage of PRC diplomatic presence there," stated ANU's Graeme Smith.

Pawn of powers

For a lot of Palauans, discuss of high-level geopolitical battle feels distant, but its ripples are all over the place. The US army enlargement, Chinese language funding, and rumours of hidden agendas feed a rising sense of unease.

"This administration may be very hawkish in the direction of China, and I feel it is ridiculous," stated the previous governor of Angaur, who opposes the development of Tacmor. "We should always think about the setting and fewer on China-US relations".

A petition circulating in latest months asks Washington to spell out its contingency plans within the occasion of warfare – an indication of how deep the nervousness runs. It calls on the US to "reassure the folks of Palau" that civilians can be protected if battle was o escape.

"We all know what the geopolitics appears like between China and the US," stated one resident. "And we're scared our island can be destroyed by a warfare we do not need to be a part of".

Viewers within the UK can see extra on World Eye on Monday 24 November at 7pm on BBC Two and in addition on iPlayer. Internationally, viewers can see World Eye on the BBC Information Channel this weekend. [ad_2] Source link