Treasury Dept. says inflation is operating 'above goal' as Trump insists there may be 'no inflation'

[ad_1] The Treasury Division mentioned Monday that inflation "remained above the target of two % within the third quarter," at the same time as President Donald Trump and administration officers proceed to claim that there's "no inflation."

Talking on CBS Information' "60 Minutes" on Sunday, Trump said, "We've no inflation, we now have no inflation."

Trump claimed that he had "already taken care of" inflation, calling 2% "the right inflation."

However inflation got here in at 3% on an annual foundation in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics .

"Meals costs for each groceries (meals at dwelling) and meals providers (meals away from dwelling) elevated reasonably within the third quarter," Treasury mentioned in a brand new "Economic system Assertion."

The assertion launched Monday is a daily financial replace ready for the Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee.

The committee consists of nonpartisan bond market executives from corporations reminiscent of Citigroup, Pimco, JPMorgan and BlackRock, and gives enter to the Treasury on authorities debt and financing points.

A White Home spokesperson didn't instantly reply to a request for touch upon the Treasury assertion.

One of many main drivers of meals inflation was record beef prices, due in part to lower herd counts .

"We're gonna get the meat worth down in a short time. It will be very good, identical to eggs," Trump mentioned Sunday on CBS.

Total, the Treasury Division mentioned that "financial development solidified within the third quarter with regular enterprise funding and client demand."

The third quarter is taken into account the three-month interval from July 1 to Sept. 30.

CEOs of retail and meals corporations have famous that whereas client spending general continues at a good tempo, lower-income consumers are faring much worse than center and higher revenue People.

“Site visitors for lower-income shoppers is down double digits,” McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski informed CNBC in September. “We would have liked to step in.”

Coca-Cola’s chief working officer, Henrique Braun, mentioned the corporate additionally noticed “divergency in spending between the revenue teams” final quarter.

Wages for the common employee solely barely outpace inflation. As of August, median pay elevated at a 4.1% charge, in contrast with inflation, which is pacing at 3.0% on an annual foundation.

Inflation has risen every month since April , when it was recorded at 2.3%.

On the subject of the labor market, which many economists and analysts view as rapidly weakening , the Treasury mentioned it sees the marketplace for job seekers as "comparatively regular" though "month-to-month job development moderated barely, whereas the common unemployment charge ticked up solely barely."

Employment development "is under the roughly 100,000 jobs added monthly within the first quarter of 2025," Treasury mentioned. This "seemingly displays the drop in inhabitants development associated to the pressured and self-deportation of unlawful immigrants."

It additional added that, "though employment development slowed within the second and third quarters of 2025, information don't point out the slower development is a results of smooth GDP development or weakening combination demand."

GDP, the first measure of the nation's financial output, rose 3.8% in the second quarter . Third-quarter GDP information was set to be launched on Oct. 30, however has been delayed by the federal government shutdown.

There even have been no official jobs stories since September as a result of shutdown. Personal payroll processor ADP mentioned on Oct. 1 that non-public corporations had shed 32,000 jobs in September.

The delayed October jobs report might present one other contraction.

"Excluding the shutdown, declining authorities employment might create a headwind for labor markets within the fourth quarter of 2025," the Treasury mentioned.

It famous that "the employment report for October might present a decline in whole payroll employment" as a result of departure of federal workers who opted for deferred resignations earlier this yr.

Synthetic intelligence might additionally play a job within the altering labor market dynamics.

"Synthetic intelligence additionally might have disruptive impacts on the financial system and labor markets as companies and people combine it or fail to," the Treasury mentioned. "Companies which might be sluggish to adapt to the expertise might discover themselves at a aggressive drawback."

"Looking forward to the following few quarters, the outlook for the U.S. financial system faces upside and draw back dangers," the report concluded. The Treasury mentioned it will be "monitoring private-sector labor market developments carefully" and mentioned the administration would pursue "supply-side insurance policies, deregulation, and different reforms" that it says will "defend the American client."