Trump's Numbers, Second Time period - FactCheck.org

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Abstract

Since President Donald Trump returned to the White Home:

Job development slowed, and the unemployment fee crept upward. Job-seekers now outnumber job openings.

Worth will increase slowed based on essentially the most generally watched quantity. However they worsened based on the measure most well-liked by the Federal Reserve.

Paychecks grew quicker than inflation. Actual weekly earnings of private-sector employees rose 1.4%.

Economists estimate the financial system grew 1.8%.

Shopper sentiment declined.

The variety of apprehensions on the U.S. border with Mexico decreased 91.4%, whereas refugee admissions declined 98%.

The worldwide commerce deficit decreased solely barely, by 0.9%.

The inventory market continued to set new information.

The variety of individuals receiving federal meals help went down by about 1.2 million.

Oil manufacturing went up 2.5%, whereas oil imports dropped 6.9%. Carbon emissions elevated barely.

The variety of murders nationwide continued to say no, a development that started in 2022.

The federal debt held by the general public rose about 6.7%.

Evaluation

Now that Trump has been again in workplace for one 12 months, we’re publishing our first “Trump’s Numbers” article of his second time period. That’s the schedule we have now followed for these reviews, which we launched in 2012. We wait a 12 months when a brand new president is inaugurated to permit for the buildup of some knowledge on most of those metrics.

Going ahead, we’ll present quarterly updates all through Trump’s time period, as we did for his predecessors , and we’ll be capable of embrace statistics which are lacking from this report — family earnings, poverty and medical insurance — as soon as the info are launched.

In a Jan. 13 speech, Trump himself cited “the numbers” for his financial document, making a wholesome, and incorrect, use of superlatives. “By virtually each metric, we have now rapidly gone from the worst numbers on document to the most effective and strongest numbers,” he said . “Simply based mostly on the numbers.”

Whereas that’s clearly not correct for “virtually each metric,” the thought behind these articles isn’t to fact-check particular claims; reasonably, we merely present the numbers. They might be anticipated or stunning, good or unhealthy, relying on one’s viewpoint. We depart these opinions to readers, and we make no judgments as to how a lot credit score or blame a president deserves for these measures.

Jobs and Unemployment

Job development slowed and unemployment crept up throughout Trump’s second time period. The variety of unemployed now exceeds the variety of job openings.

Employment — Employment continued rising throughout Trump’s first 11 months in workplace, however rather more slowly than it had within the earlier 11 months.

The newest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics present an increase of 473,000 in whole nonfarm employment between January and December 2025. That’s barely greater than one-quarter of the 1,782,000 jobs added between February 2024 and January 2025, when Trump started his present time period.

(A observe of warning: BLS has announced it is going to revise its month-to-month job figures considerably downward for March as a result of its annual “benchmarking” examine indicated its month-to-month survey had overcounted the variety of jobs that month by 911,000. Up to date figures going again to March 2024 are scheduled to be launched in February together with the common month-to-month employment report.)

A lot of the sluggishness below Trump is as a result of president’s deliberate slashing of the federal workforce. Federal authorities employment has fallen by 277,000, or 9.2%, since he took workplace.

Wanting only at the private sector — excluding federal, state and native authorities employees — 654,000 jobs had been added throughout Trump’s time period up to now. However that’s nonetheless lower than half the 1,414,000 added within the previous 11 months.

Again in August, Trump reacted to disappointing job-growth figures by calling them “rigged” and “phony” regardless that we found no evidence of that and the White Home provided none. Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated as her alternative E.J. Antoni, an economist on the conservative Heritage Basis. Trump withdrew that nomination amid a lot criticism on the finish of September and has but to call a everlasting alternative.

In the meantime BLS reported a achieve of solely 50,000 jobs within the month of December. That’s even decrease than the preliminary report of a 73,000 achieve in July that prompted Trump to fire the BLS chief. The July achieve has since been revised downward to 72,000.

Manufacturing Jobs — The financial system continued to lose manufacturing jobs . Throughout Trump’s first 11 months the loss was 63,000. That adopted a lack of 98,000 within the previous 11 months.

Labor Pressure Participation — The labor force participation rate declined a bit in Trump’s second time period, dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%.

The speed is the portion of the inhabitants over age 16 that's working or searching for work. It typically has been in a protracted decline because the inhabitants ages and folks retire.

Unemployment — The unemployment rate has remained effectively beneath the historic norm below Trump, however has gone up barely since he took workplace. It was 4.0% in January 2025, and most just lately was 4.4% in December.

The median fee for all months since 1948 is 5.5%.

Job Openings — The number of people formally listed as unemployed rose by 638,000 throughout Trump’s first 11 months, whereas the variety of job openings declined by 616,000. There are actually 7.5 million unemployed and searching for work, however solely 7.1 million openings. When Trump took workplace, job alternatives outnumbered job-seekers.

Wages and Inflation

CPI — Trump campaigned on a promise to scale back inflation, and since he took workplace it has slowed little. Or perhaps not. By one vital measure it has worsened.

Within the 12 months earlier than Trump took workplace the Shopper Worth Index, essentially the most generally cited measure of inflation, rose 3.0% . And in the newest BLS report, the 12-month increase was 2.7% .

Over Trump’s first 11 months in workplace, the CPI went up 2.18% .

One significantly vivid spot: The usually risky worth of gasoline has eased. The nationwide common worth for normal gasoline on the pump was $3.11 the week Trump was sworn in for the second time, and had dropped to $2.78 by the week ending Jan. 12, based on the Energy Information Administration .

Inflation was a lot worse in 2022, when the 12-month CPI enhance spiked at 9.1% in June . That was the biggest 12-month enhance in over 40 years. However inflation had slowed markedly by the point Trump got here in.

Nonetheless, inflation stays increased than the Federal Reserve would really like, and it’s going within the unsuitable course as measured by the Fed’s most well-liked metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index , compiled by the Bureau of Financial Evaluation.

The central financial institution’s goal is a 2% annual enhance within the PCE. When Trump took workplace, the 12-month increase in the PCE was 2.5% . However the newest report put the 12-month increase at 2.8% .

That was for the interval ending in September. Not solely do the PCE figures take longer to assemble than the CPI, they've been delayed by the current authorities shutdown. The subsequent PCE launch is now scheduled for Jan. 22 and can cowl each October and November.

Wages — Wage will increase accelerated below Trump, even adjusted for inflation.

The common weekly earnings of all private-sector employees, adjusted for inflation, rose 1.4% throughout Trump’s first 11 months. They had been rising when he took workplace, however had solely gone up 0.5% within the previous 11 months.

These figures embrace professionals, executives and supervisory workers, whose pay is often increased. However rank-and-file wage earners are seeing positive aspects simply as fast as these of their bosses. For personal-sector production and nonsupervisory employees , actual common earnings additionally rose 1.4% below Trump, after a 1.0% rise within the previous interval.

Financial Progress

After a weak first quarter, the financial system confirmed stunning resilience in Trump’s first 12 months again in workplace – largely on the power of considerable synthetic intelligence investments and family spending.

Though the primary official annual estimate from the Bureau of Financial Evaluation isn’t due to be released till Feb. 20, BEA data available so far present that actual gross home product declined at an annual fee of 0.6% within the first three months of 2025 however then grew by 3.8% within the second quarter and 4.3% within the third quarter.

The reported third-quarter development was the biggest in two years, when the financial system expanded at an annual fee of 4.7%. Fourth quarter development, which additionally gained’t be launched till Feb. 20, could also be even increased. As of Jan. 14, the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta’s GDPNow model was projecting development of 5.3%.

“This sturdy development got here regardless of the antagonistic commerce and immigration shocks the financial system has absorbed over the previous 12 months,” leading to a “mushy labor market,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in December after the third-quarter figures had been launched. “That interaction — a surging financial system and a mushy labor market — is more likely to be the foremost financial narrative subsequent 12 months.”

Brusuelas described the financial system as a “resilient beast.” He attributed the third-quarter development to “[h]ousehold consumption pushed by higher-income shoppers and AI-related funding,” which he wrote “accounted for just below 70% of whole development in the course of the [third] quarter.”

For the total 12 months, Federal Reserve Board members and financial institution presidents count on development to come back in at between 1.5% and a couple of%, based on estimates launched Dec. 10. Their median projection was 1.7%. Equally, economists surveyed in October by the Nationwide Affiliation for Enterprise Economics estimated 1.8% development in 2025.

Shopper Sentiment

When Trump took workplace, shoppers surveyed by the College of Michigan expressed concern about unemployment and inflation and uncertainty concerning the potential affect of Trump’s financial agenda.

“Considerations over the long run trajectory of inflation had been seen all through the interviews and had been tied to beliefs about anticipated insurance policies like tariffs,” Joanne W. Hsu, director of the Surveys of Shoppers, stated in a press release final January, including that “shoppers of all political leanings will proceed to refine their views as Trump’s insurance policies are clarified and carried out.”

A 12 months in the past, the college’s survey confirmed that the buyer sentiment was 71.7. Since then, shopper confidence has precipitously declined in subsequent surveys and stays stubbornly low.

The college’s preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment for January was 54 – 17.7 factors decrease than it was when Trump took workplace. Against this, shopper sentiment never dropped below 71.8 in Trump’s first time period, regardless of the financial turmoil attributable to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.

Though these surveyed perceived some “modest enchancment” within the financial system within the final two months, shopper sentiment “stays almost 25% beneath final January’s studying,” Hsu stated. Shoppers “proceed to be centered totally on kitchen desk points, like excessive costs and softening labor markets.”

In its most up-to-date Shopper Confidence Survey, the Convention Board — a analysis group with greater than 2,000 member firms — additionally reported that shopper confidence declined for the fifth straight month in December.

“Regardless of an upward revision in November associated to the top of the [government] shutdown, shopper confidence fell once more in December and remained effectively beneath this 12 months’s January peak,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist of the Convention Board, stated in a Dec. 23 press release .

Residence Costs & Homeownership

Homeownership — Homeownership charges have declined barely since Trump grew to become president.

The homeownership rate , which the Census Bureau measures as the proportion of “occupied housing items which are owner-occupied,” was 65.3% within the third quarter of 2025 — 0.4 factors beneath the 65.7% fee throughout Biden’s final quarter in workplace.

Though mortgage charges eased in 2025, the homeownership fee within the third quarter “remained beneath final 12 months’s tempo due to ongoing affordability pressures,” according to Realtor.com.

“Persistent affordability challenges and a scarcity of moderately priced properties have saved the speed from rising extra meaningfully, although current stock positive aspects, softer costs, and easing mortgage charges seem like serving to some beforehand sidelined households enter the market,” Realtor.com Senior Financial Analysis Analyst Hannah Jones stated in a Dec. 12 article on the corporate’s web site.

The best homeownership fee on document was 69.2% in 2004, when George W. Bush was president. However millions of Americans misplaced their properties in the course of the Great Recession , a monetary disaster triggered by a housing market crash.

“Following record-high homeownership charges earlier than the 2008 housing and monetary disaster, homeownership charges have remained comparatively static on the present fee of 65 %,” HUD’s coverage and analysis arm wrote in a July report on the historical past of homeownership within the U.S.

Residence Costs — Residence costs, which soared to new highs below Biden, slowed in Trump’s first 12 months, as mortgage charges continued to fall.

The national median price of an current, single-family dwelling bought in December was $409,500, based on the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors. That was 2.9% increased than it was in January, when Biden left workplace.

Checked out one other manner: The median gross sales worth in December was solely 0.24% increased year-over-year.

“2025 was one other powerful 12 months for homebuyers, marked by record-high dwelling costs and traditionally low dwelling gross sales,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a press launch. “Nevertheless, within the fourth quarter, circumstances started enhancing, with decrease mortgage charges and slower dwelling worth development.”

The Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates of interest three times in 2024. After a pause, the Fed minimize charges three extra instances in 2025 – decreasing charges final 12 months by a full percentage point since September. Whereas that’s indirectly tied to mortgage charges, it will probably have an effect on how banks set their mortgage charges.

As of Jan. 8, the common mortgage fee on a 30-year fastened fee mortgage was 6.16% — down from 6.96% for the week ending Jan. 23, 2025, according to Freddie Mac. Trump took workplace on Jan. 20, 2025.

Immigration

In his first 12 months in workplace, Trump has adopted by way of on his signature marketing campaign promise to — as he places it — “shut the border,” with quite a few government actions which have dramatically reshaped immigration coverage and enforcement.

“The border is completely safe,” Trump told reporters on Jan. 11.

The variety of apprehensions on the U.S. border with Mexico decreased 91.4% throughout Trump’s first full 11 months in workplace, in contrast with the identical interval in 2024, based on the most recent figures launched by U.S. Customs and Border Safety. The month-to-month common (7,255) was at a low not seen for the reason that early Nineteen Sixties.

Calculating the change in border apprehensions is the tactic we’ve used as a proxy to measure unlawful border crossings for our Numbers tales going again to President Barack Obama. However in Trump’s case, that dramatic drop tells solely a part of the story of the sweeping immigration coverage adjustments that the Migration Coverage Institute describes as “unprecedented of their breadth and attain.”

“Whereas some efforts have stalled or not but met the White Home’s lofty targets, the administration has dramatically reshaped the equipment of presidency to focus on unauthorized immigrants within the nation, deter unauthorized border arrivals, make the standing of many legally resident immigrants extra tenuous, and impose obstacles for lawful entry of enormous swaths of worldwide vacationers and would-be immigrants,” MPI’s Muzaffar Chishti, Kathleen Bush-Joseph and Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh wrote of their Jan. 13 article, “ Unleashing Power in New Ways: Immigration in the First Year of Trump 2.0 .” The “internet change,” the authors wrote, “has been dizzying in its scope and velocity.”

The Trump administration has “dismantled longstanding norms,” the authors wrote, invoking “archaic statutes,” enlisting “assist from state and native legislation enforcement in addition to federal companies that traditionally had no immigration enforcement function,” and pressuring “overseas governments to obtain deportees,” the MPI report said. “Maybe most visibly, it militarized immigration enforcement.”

Trump has achieved his coverage principally by way of government actions, reasonably than with legislative assist, one thing he has boasted about repeatedly.

“Bear in mind Biden, he stated I've to get approval from Congress,” Trump said in a speech in Detroit on Jan. 13. “Had nothing to do with Congress, needed to do with respect.”

In certainly one of his first actions upon taking workplace in January 2025, Trump issued a proclamation that “the present scenario on the southern border qualifies as an invasion below Article IV, Part 4 of the Structure of the US.” He principally blocked migrants’ capability to request asylum. He canceled humanitarian parole applications that the Biden administration prolonged to Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela . And he reinstated the “Stay in Mexico” coverage, in order that asylum seekers had been despatched to Mexico to await their court docket appearances within the U.S.

In December, Trump paused all asylum choices at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Providers. And on Jan. 14, the president indefinitely paused the processing of immigrant visas for 75 nations, including Afghanistan, Brazil, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Russia, Thailand, Somalia and Yemen. He had beforehand issued a full or partial ban on journey from 39 nations.

MPI estimated that within the first 12 months of his second time period, Trump has taken greater than 500 actions on immigration together with 38 government orders and “tons of of different actions by way of presidential proclamations and coverage steering.” That’s extra actions than in all 4 years of Trump’s first time period, MPI stated.

However Congress has offered some assist. In July, Republicans handed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act , which included greater than $170 billion to ramp up immigration enforcement, detention and deportation.

More and more, the administration has turned its consideration to inside enforcement. In accordance with MPI, “U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests have greater than quadrupled since Trump took workplace, whereas common day by day detention has doubled.”

In December, the Division of Homeland Safety reported that its enforcement operations have resulted in additional than 622,000 deportations since January 2025 (in need of the stated goal of no less than 1 million per 12 months). And, DHS said , one other “1.9 million unlawful aliens have voluntarily self-deported,” a few of whom had been lured by authorities incentives — a free flight dwelling and $1,000. MPI stated the Trump administration hasn’t offered any knowledge to again up that self-deportation declare.

A New York Times analysis of federal knowledge disputed the administration’s figures, with its Jan. 17 evaluation, overlaying Trump’s first 12 months, estimating the variety of deportations at 540,000, together with 230,000 individuals who had been detained contained in the nation, 270,000 deported on the border and 40,000 who signed up for the federal government incentives to self-deport. The Occasions speculated that the administration’s 622,000 determine “possible contains all repatriations carried out by varied homeland safety subagencies,” reminiscent of ship crews which are barred from disembarking.

Each the Occasions and MPI famous that DHS hasn’t launched detailed, public reviews on these statistics, because it has up to now.

In any case, the Occasions famous the variety of deportations lagged the quantity in Biden’s final two years in workplace: 590,000 whole deportations in 2023 and 650,000 in 2024, when border apprehensions had been a lot increased than they're now. The variety of individuals Trump has deported from contained in the nation, 230,000, is much increased than the 50,000 deported from contained in the nation in 2024.

Refugees

In his first time period, Trump sharply reduced refugee admissions. However now they've almost stopped fully.

As we wrote final 12 months, Trump signed an executive order on his first day again in workplace that known as for a “realignment” of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program , together with an indefinite suspension of all admissions till this system “aligns with the pursuits of the US.”

There have been few exceptions to the brand new refugee coverage – notably for refugees from South Africa’s white minority Afrikaner ethnic group. In making an exception for Afrikaners, Trump claimed there was “a genocide that’s happening” towards white farmers within the nation – which, as we wrote , distorts the info.

Starting in February, the U.S. has admitted just one,226 refugees in Trump’s first full 11 months in workplace – together with 1,059 refugees from South Africa, according to State Division knowledge.

Against this, the U.S. admitted 70,033 throughout the identical 11-month interval, from February 2024 by way of December 2024, below Biden. That’s a staggering 98% decline.

For fiscal 12 months 2026, which started Oct. 1, 2025, Trump positioned a cap of 7,500 on refugee admissions – which is much fewer than the 125,000 cap Biden instituted for fiscal 12 months 2025. It’s additionally a lot lower than the 45,000 cap that Trump positioned on refugees in fiscal 12 months 2018, which was his first full fiscal 12 months as president throughout his first time period.

Apart from refugees from South Africa, Trump was pressured by a court docket ruling to confess some refugees who had plans to resettle within the U.S. when he suspended this system.

As we wrote, an appeals court docket dominated (in a clarifying opinion issued April 21) that refugees who had an “authorised refugee utility” and “had organized and confirmable journey plans” on or earlier than Trump’s Jan. 20 government order can enter the nation. About 160 refugees had been affected by that call, a spokesman for the Worldwide Refugee Help Mission advised us for an article in September .

A lot of the non-South Africans admitted final 12 months got here from Afghanistan. The U.S. admitted 100 Afghan refugees up to now 11 months, the State Department data present.

Along with suspending the refugee program, Trump extra just lately has threatened to deport refugees who settled in Minnesota, citing an ongoing fraud investigation in that metropolis.

In a Jan. 9 statement , the Division of Homeland Safety stated it's “reexamining hundreds of refugee instances by way of new background checks and intensive verification of refugee claims,” starting with “Minnesota’s 5,600 refugees who haven't but been given lawful everlasting resident standing (Inexperienced Playing cards).”

Commerce

The worldwide commerce deficit, which Trump criticized for reaching document ranges below Biden, decreased solely barely within the months since Trump took workplace for his second time period.

Via his first full 9 months in workplace, the U.S. imported $654 billion extra in items and companies than it exported, according to the newest knowledge from the Bureau of Financial Evaluation. That’s about 0.9% lower than the $659.7 billion hole between U.S. imports and exports throughout the identical interval in 2024.

The complete affect of Trump’s new tariff insurance policies on the commerce imbalance continues to be to be decided. The New York Occasions noted that “due to a surge in imports earlier this 12 months,” to keep away from import tariffs that later went into impact, “the general commerce deficit from January to October was nonetheless up 7.7 % from the earlier 12 months.”

Additionally, when the products and companies commerce deficit for the month of October went down 60% year-over-year to $29.4 billion, the bottom month-to-month whole since June 2009, the Occasions stated that some economists attributed the lower to “short-term fluctuations in commerce in sure merchandise, like gold and prescribed drugs.”

Mark Zandi , chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, advised the newspaper: “Reducing by way of the noise and attending to the underlying sign within the knowledge, it suggests to me that the deficit is as giant as its ever been.”

Company Earnings

Company earnings set records every year below Biden, however dipped within the first quarter below Trump earlier than rebounding barely within the second quarter and recovering totally within the third quarter.

The Bureau of Financial Evaluation reported that after-tax company earnings at an annual fee had been $3.59 trillion within the third quarter of 2025 – about $91 billion, or 2.6%, increased than the full-year figure for 2024 .

The fourth quarter and annual figures for final 12 months gained’t be released until March , so it's nonetheless unclear if after-tax company earnings for the total 12 months will likely be up or down.

Beneath Biden, the annual common development was 31% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022, 7.8% in 2023 and seven.9% in 2024, according to BEA knowledge.

Inventory Market

The inventory market, which set information throughout Biden’s presidency, reached new heights once more below Trump.

The S&P 500 , which is made up of 500 large-cap firms, closed at 15.7% increased on Jan. 16 than it was three days earlier than Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average , made up of 30 giant companies, was up 13.5% over that very same interval.

And the Nasdaq composite index , comprising greater than 3,000 firms, many within the know-how sector, surged by virtually 19.8% in that timeframe.

These positive aspects adopted ample market will increase in the course of the Biden administration , when the S&P rose 57.8%, the Dow Jones went up 40.6%, and the Nasdaq elevated by virtually half.

Meals Stamps

After a slight increase in enrollment throughout Biden’s presidency, the most recent knowledge from the Division of Agriculture present that below Trump fewer persons are accessing advantages from the Supplemental Vitamin Help Program, previously referred to as meals stamps.

About 41.6 million individuals had been receiving federal meals help in September, according to preliminary USDA figures printed final month. The quantity has gone down by about 1.2 million individuals, or 2.8%, since Trump took workplace.

The variety of people benefiting from SNAP is anticipated to say no additional due to the Republicans’ One Large Stunning Invoice Act, which modified eligibility necessities for SNAP and is estimated to scale back federal spending on this system. For instance, the legislation extends work necessities to incorporate “able-bodied adults with out dependents” aged 55 to 64, who had been beforehand exempt.

In August, the Congressional Finances Workplace said that provisions within the legislation “will cut back participation in SNAP by roughly 2.4 million individuals in a median month over the 2025-2034 interval.”

Crime

We gained’t have annual 2025 crime knowledge from the FBI till the autumn. However different reviews on a part of the 12 months present violent crime has continued to drop, a development that started in 2022 after a spike in crime, significantly murders, in 2020.

AH Datalytics , an unbiased felony justice knowledge evaluation group, produces a Real-Time Crime Index , an aggregation of crime knowledge collected from 570 law enforcement agencies . That index reveals a 19.8% decline within the variety of murders for January to October 2025 in contrast with the identical interval in 2024. Long run, the index reveals the variety of murders jumped in 2020, in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, then leveled off and has been dropping since 2022.

The most recent report from the Main Cities Chiefs Affiliation, which compares Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, 2025, to the identical interval within the prior 12 months, equally found a 19.1% decline within the variety of murders for 67 legislation enforcement companies. The variety of rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults additionally went down, with the latter lowering by 10%.

A midyear 2025 report by the Council on Felony Justice on 42 cities, which persistently printed knowledge since 2019, discovered the identical development, with crime ranges now principally beneath pre-pandemic ranges. “Analyzing traits over an extended timeframe, violent crimes are beneath ranges seen within the first half of 2019, the 12 months previous to the onset of the COVID pandemic and racial justice protests of 2020,” the CCJ report said . It famous, although, that the drop in murders has been concentrated in just a few cities.

“A lot of the decline within the nationwide murder fee, which started in late 2022, has been pushed by giant drops in just a few pattern cities with excessive murder ranges, reminiscent of Baltimore and St. Louis,” CCJ said in a press launch about its findings. “The newest knowledge present that the entire pattern cities are actually beneath the overall peak of 2020 to 2021, however greater than 60% proceed to expertise murder ranges above pre-2020 charges.”

Gun Gross sales

After reaching a record high in 2020, estimated gun gross sales declined yearly that Biden was president. That downward development continued throughout Trump’s first 12 months again in workplace.

The federal government doesn’t accumulate knowledge on gun gross sales. However the National Shooting Sports Foundation — the gun trade’s commerce group — estimates gun gross sales by monitoring the variety of background checks for firearm gross sales based mostly on the FBI’s Nationwide Prompt Felony Background Verify System. The NSSF-adjusted figures exclude background checks unrelated to gross sales, reminiscent of these required for concealed-carry permits.

In accordance with NSSF, the variety of background checks for gun purchases in 2025 was roughly 14.6 million – down 4.1% from about 15.2 million in 2024. However the 2025 whole was nonetheless increased than the just about 13.2 million estimated gross sales in 2019, earlier than the pandemic.

In the meantime, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has but to publish its annual manufacturing figures, so we don’t know whether or not firearm manufacturing, particularly of handguns, elevated or decreased in 2025.

Debt and Deficits

Trump’s campaign pledge that “we’re going to really begin paying off debt” hasn’t occurred but. The publicly held debt elevated by about one-third on Biden’s watch and continued to rise in the course of the first 12 months of Trump’s second time period.

As of Jan. 14, the debt held by the public , which excludes cash the federal authorities owes to itself, was virtually $30.8 trillion – up about 6.7% from greater than $28.8 trillion on Jan. 17, 2025, three days earlier than he took workplace.

One other annual deficit – near $1.8 trillion within the fiscal 12 months that ended Sept. 30 – was a key issue. It was the fourth highest fiscal deficit of all time (behind FY 2020, FY 2021 and FY 2024) and the sixth consecutive funds hole of greater than $1 trillion.

Trump’s new Division of Authorities Effectivity had promised to chop federal spending by no less than $1 trillion, a objective it didn't obtain. As an alternative, federal spending went up a bit in fiscal 2025.

And, up to now, the U.S. seems headed for an additional debt-increasing deficit in FY 2026 – though maybe a smaller one. From October by way of December, the primary quarter of the present fiscal cycle, the CBO said that federal outlays exceeded revenues by $601 billion. That’s about $110 billion lower than the deficit in the identical quarter of fiscal 2025.

Oil Manufacturing and Imports

Trump campaigned on a promise that the U.S. would “drill, child, drill” throughout a second Trump time period, and on his first day again in workplace, he signed an executive order with a said objective of “unleashing American power.”

As of October, U.S. crude oil manufacturing had elevated to a median of 13.6 million barrels per day in Trump’s first full 9 months within the White Home, according to the newest knowledge from the U.S. Vitality Info Administration. That’s up virtually 2.5% from the identical nine-month interval in 2024.

Earlier than Trump was inaugurated, and earlier than any of his insurance policies had been in place, the EIA had already projected in its month-to-month Short-Term Energy Outlook that common day by day manufacturing would enhance to a document 13.5 million barrels a day in 2025.

U.S. crude oil imports are trending in the wrong way.

Imports had been right down to a median of about 6.1 million barrels per day throughout Trump’s first full 9 months — a lower of 6.9% from almost 6.6 million barrels per day in the course of the comparable interval a 12 months earlier. In the course of the Biden years , common imports elevated yearly.

Carbon Emissions

EIA knowledge additionally present a small enhance in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from power consumption below Trump

There have been approaching 3.2 billion metric tons of emissions from the consumption of coal, pure gasoline and varied petroleum merchandise in his first full eight months in workplace. That was roughly 1.4% greater than the over 3.1 billion metric tons that had been emitted from consuming these power sources throughout the identical stretch in 2024.

In early January 2025, the EIA projected that CO2 emissions would enhance barely in 2025, however stay within the ballpark of 4.8 billion metric tons emitted in 2024. The company stated it anticipated emissions development as a result of elevated consumption of petroleum merchandise throughout a number of sectors, significantly using diesel gasoline and jet gasoline.

Emissions had declined in 2023 and 2024 after growing in Biden’s first two years as president.

Well being Insurance coverage

We don’t but have knowledge on how medical insurance protection has modified up to now below Trump’s second time period. Usually, the National Health Interview Survey has launched quarterly preliminary reviews on the insurance coverage standing of People. However the NHIS’ web site now says that as of 2025, the info will solely be launched biannually.

The most recent report, post e d in June 2025, covers calendar 12 months 2024. The NHIS is a undertaking of the Nationwide Heart for Well being Statistics on the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention.

A report on estimates from the survey for January to June 2025 is scheduled to be launched on Jan. 30.

The One Large Stunning Invoice Act, which Trump signed into legislation in July, is anticipated to immediate an increase within the quantity of people that lack medical insurance, beginning subsequent 12 months. The nonpartisan Congressional Finances Workplace estimated the uninsured would enhance by 10 million individuals over 10 years, with many of the enhance as a result of legislation’s adjustments to Medicaid. For 2026, the rise was estimated at 1.3 million individuals. (See the hyperlink to estimated adjustments in individuals with out medical insurance.)

In 2024, the final 12 months of Biden’s time period, 8.2% of the inhabitants, or 27.2 million individuals, had been uninsured, based on the NHIS’ estimates, which measure these uninsured on the time they had been interviewed. A Census Bureau report , launched in September and measuring those that had been uninsured for your complete calendar 12 months, equally put the uninsured fee at 8%.

Beneath Biden’s full time period, the proportion and variety of People who're uninsured declined, as we defined in our “ Biden’s Final Numbers ” report.

Judiciary Appointments

In his first term , Trump stuffed one-third of the Supreme Court docket, almost 30% of the appeals court docket seats and almost 26% of District Court docket seats. To date in his second time period, the judiciary affirmation numbers lag a bit behind these in Biden’s first 12 months.

Supreme Court docket — There hasn’t been a emptiness on the Supreme Court docket in the course of the first 12 months of Trump’s second time period, simply as there wasn’t a emptiness in Biden’s first 12 months.

Court docket of Appeals — As of Jan. 16, Trump has gained confirmation for six U.S. Court docket of Appeals judges. On the similar level in his time period, Biden had gained confirmation for 12.

District Court docket — Twenty-one Trump nominees to be District Court docket judges have been confirmed, whereas 29 had been confirmed on the similar level in Biden’s first 12 months.

Two U.S. Court docket of Federal Claims judges also were confirmed in Biden’s first 12 months. None have been confirmed up to now below Trump, and there aren't any vacancies for such positions.

As of Jan. 16, there have been no vacancies for Court docket of Appeals judges, 39 for District Court docket judges with 5 nominees pending, and one emptiness for the worldwide commerce court docket.

Sources

We offer hyperlinks to the sources for these statistics all through the article.

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