UK inflation regular earlier than Iran struggle; oil value dips on Trump feedback – enterprise reside | Enterprise

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UK meals value inflation eases however trade group warns it is 'the calm earlier than the storm' Meals value inflation within the UK has additionally eased, however the Meals and Drink Federation warned this might the “the calm earlier than the storm,” because the battle within the Center East threatens to push up meals costs once more, becaue of upper vitality and fertiliser prices.

Meals and non-alcoholic drink costs rose at an annual price of three.3% final month, down from 3.6% in January. Costs fell in 9 classes, with the biggest drops for: olive oil (-10.4%), flours (-8.3%) and pizza (-4.9%).

Costs rose the quickest for beef and veal (20.6%), offal (17.0%) and entire milk (13.1%).

Karen Betts, chief government of the Meals and Drink Federation, mentioned:

double citation markWhile meals inflation fell barely in February 2026, I'm involved that that is the calm earlier than the storm. The longer the battle within the Center East goes on, the larger its influence shall be on meals costs. With foods and drinks value inflation already operating above historic averages, heightened vitality, maritime gasoline and fertiliser prices will put additional strain on costs.

Foods and drinks is an important, purchased by each family, each week. Whereas it may well take a number of months for price rises to filter totally via to buy cabinets, the price of the Iran battle shall be felt by customers this yr. If authorities is critical about tackling the rising price of residing, it should present our trade with at the very least the identical assist as different manufacturing sectors. The present vitality shock is one more structural shock our trade must take up, on high of the Ukraine struggle, the prices of realigning meals regulation with the EU as soon as once more, and new regulatory burdens.

Members have reported that UK haulage firms have applied a rise on Emergency Gasoline Surcharge of as much as 20%. And the ocean freight strains have additionally applied an Emergency Bunker Surcharge of round $400/container to cowl the oil prices

Share The element reveals UK clothes and footwear costs rose by 0.9% within the 12 months to February, in contrast with no change within the 12 months to January. The February determine was the best recorded since March 2025, when the speed was 1.1%.

Costs usually rise in February, because the spring ranges begin to enter the outlets following the brand new yr gross sales interval, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics mentioned.

This was offset by a drop in petrol costs, because the ONS collected the information earlier than the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on 28 February.

Transport costs total rose by 2.4%, down from 2.7% in January. The biggest downward impact got here from motor fuels, the place the typical value of petrol fell by 1.6 pence a litre between January and February to 131.6p, in contrast with an increase of 2p a litre a yr earlier.

Equally, diesel costs fell by 1.4p a litre to 141.1p, in contrast with an increase of two.3 pence per litre a yr earlier.

Share Introduction: UK inflation regular earlier than Iran struggle; oil dips on Trump feedback Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world financial system.

Inflation within the UK was unchanged final month, as anticipated – earlier than the Iran struggle drove up world vitality prices, threatening a renewed value bounce.

Official figures confirmed the patron costs index (CPI) stayed at an annual price of three% in February, the identical as in January. Economists had anticipated it to remain at 3%.

Clothes made the biggest upward contribution to the month-to-month change whereas motor fuels made the biggest, offsetting downward contribution, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics mentioned.

The outlook for inflation has modified dramatically for the reason that onset of the Center East battle, which has despatched oil and fuel costs hovering after the efficient closure of the important thing transit route of the strait of Hormuz.

This implies the rate of interest outlook has additionally shifted, with markets now anticipating a number of price hikes, reasonably than cuts, this yr.

Charlie Ambler, co-chief funding fficer at wealth administration agency Saltus, mentioned:

double citation markWhile we anticipated February’s inflation information to stay secure round 3%, rising oil costs are extensively anticipated to push up the headline price of inflation to close double the two% goal later this yr, threatening the Financial institution’s gradual and regular price reducing cycle and irritating markets. Ought to this materialise, markets are unlikely to reply effectively.

Whereas the Financial institution of England has signalled a cautious and information dependent strategy to financial coverage, leading to a maintain at 3.75% final week, monetary markets have already reacted sharply to the altering world outlook. Traders are actually pricing in the potential for a number of rate of interest will increase this yr, with some expectations pointing to as many as 4 rises earlier than the top of 2026. The hole between market expectations and the Financial institution’s personal steerage highlights simply how unsure the inflation outlook has turn into.

Oil costs dipped this morning to hover round $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump despatched a 15-point peace plan to Iran and voiced optimism about ending almost a month of struggle.

Brent crude fell 4.1% to $100.2 a barrel, whereas New York gentle crude misplaced 3.5% to $89.12 a barrel. Each benchmarks rose almost 5% on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards mentioned it had launched a brand new wave of assaults towards places in Israel together with Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, in addition to US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, based on Iranian state media.

Asian inventory markets rebounded strongly, with Japan’s Nikkei up 2.87% whereas South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%.

The Agenda

8.45am BST: ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks

9am BST: Germany Ifo enterprise local weather

9.30am BST: UK home costs and rents

11am BST: US Weekly mortgage functions

Share Up to date at 03.23 EDT

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