Ukraine peace plan ‘scares the bejesus out of us,’ officers say

[ad_1] KYIV, Ukraine — A most of 800,000. That’s what number of troopers Ukraine’s military can be approved to have beneath the present 20-point peace framework — a 20% reduce from the roughly a million presently beneath arms, however a major improve over the 600,000 initially proposed.

That greater quantity was a concession Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gained after weeks of pushing again. Nevertheless it’s nonetheless a ceiling on a power constructed over virtually 4 years of struggle with Western weapons, Western coaching and Western intelligence.

Russia faces no equal restrict.

Nearly 4 years in the past, Moscow anticipated Kyiv to fall in three days. As a substitute, Ukraine buried its lifeless in mass graves from Bucha to Izium, watched Mariupol’s defenders disappear into Russian filtration camps , counted the tens of 1000's of youngsters, in line with Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab , who had been taken throughout the border — and stored preventing.

Zelenskyy stated greater than 45,000 Ukrainian troopers had been killed and 390,000 wounded in a February interview with Piers Morgan — roughly 1 in 20 fighting-age males within the nation, in line with The Economist .

The military that paid for each kilometer in our bodies is now being requested to shrink, to cede floor it’s nonetheless holding and to just accept ensures that even its allies can’t clarify.

It’s certainly one of many sticking factors which have hounded negotiators since November — dismissed as a nonstarter by Ukrainians and handled as a baseline demand by Moscow. The 800,000 determine is meant to be the compromise.

<img data-chromatic="ignore" alt="" class="c-image" loading="lazy" src="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/H24Z3ZXDL5DLJDISIZJSJN6D2Q.jpg?auth=976fff23ca8a5d93ef9f2949b8baf41d9fefffb34b2fc63f0731bca0879891e3&width=5464&height=3640" srcset="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/H24Z3ZXDL5DLJDISIZJSJN6D2Q.jpg?auth=976fff23ca8a5d93ef9f2949b8baf41d9fefffb34b2fc63f0731bca0879891e3&width=800&height=532 800w, https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/H24Z3ZXDL5DLJDISIZJSJN6D2Q.jpg?auth=976fff23ca8a5d93ef9f2949b8baf41d9fefffb34b2fc63f0731bca0879891e3&width=1024&height=682 1024w" width="5464" height="3640"/> Police work on IDing civilians following killings in Bucha, earlier than sending the our bodies to the morgue, April 6, 2022. (Rodrigo Abd/AP) However the present frameworks supply little in the case of stifling Russian hostilities, retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Military Europe and certainly one of NATO’s most skilled voices on the alliance’s Eastern flank , instructed Army Instances.

“Who advantages from that?” he instructed Army Instances. “Russia.”

The framework, delivered to Moscow on Dec. 24, proposes a demilitarized zone alongside a line Russia hasn’t captured on the battlefield, in line with The Washington Post . It provides “Article 5-like” safety ensures, Hodges famous, that even U.S. officers have struggled to clarify.

It additionally requires Ukraine to carry the road towards an adversary whose reply to present peace talks, in line with Zelenskyy, got here within the type of almost 500 drones and 40 missiles over Kyiv final weekend, an assault that killed two and left a 3rd of the capital with out warmth, in line with Reuters . The wartime chief arrived in Mar-a-Lago the subsequent day.

“Russian representatives have interaction in prolonged talks,” Zelenskyy posted Saturday, “however in actuality, Kinzhals and Shaheds [drones] converse for them.”

The sample continued on Monday, when Russian Overseas Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence in Novgorod with 91 drones in a single day — an accusation Zelenskyy referred to as a lie and “an try and undermine peace talks,” in line with Reuters .

In response, Lavrov stated Moscow would “assessment” its negotiating place and that targets for retaliatory strikes had already been chosen.

The safety structure stays in flux, too. U.S. President Donald Trump provided Ukraine a 15-year safety assure as a part of a revised plan earlier the identical day — a dedication Zelenskyy shortly referred to as “sturdy” however pushed to increase to 30 or 50 years, citing the struggle’s near-15-year span since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

However the supply requires U.S. congressional ratification and European parliamentary approval, in line with NPR — a procedural hurdle that might nonetheless depart the ensures undefined in follow.

<img data-chromatic="ignore" alt="" class="c-image" loading="lazy" src="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/5TLUTVF74BHHHIH27G7FRW225M.jpg?auth=0a8f3e7a713c4833ffecab89c1d2bf1114345e8aded3bcb8b87e45e3d3de50be&width=5157&height=3439" srcset="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/5TLUTVF74BHHHIH27G7FRW225M.jpg?auth=0a8f3e7a713c4833ffecab89c1d2bf1114345e8aded3bcb8b87e45e3d3de50be&width=800&height=533 800w, https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/5TLUTVF74BHHHIH27G7FRW225M.jpg?auth=0a8f3e7a713c4833ffecab89c1d2bf1114345e8aded3bcb8b87e45e3d3de50be&width=1024&height=682 1024w" width="5157" height="3439"/> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky listens as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks throughout a press convention following their assembly at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago membership on Dec. 28, 2025. (Joe Raedle/Getty Photographs) The army Russia failed to interrupt The military Moscow anticipated to break down in 72 hours is now some of the combat-tested forces on the earth.

Practically a million Ukrainians are presently beneath arms, skilled on NATO weapons techniques, built-in into Western intelligence-sharing networks and hardened by virtually 4 years of high-intensity typical warfare.

They’ve absorbed extra battlefield lessons in drone tactics , digital countermeasures and decentralized command than any NATO army has realized in many years — and so they’ve completed it beneath hearth. That is the power the 20-point framework would cap at 20% smaller than its present dimension.

Hodges, who spent years planning for a possible Russian battle from his headquarters in Wiesbaden, Germany, sees the restrict as an operational straitjacket.

“What Ukraine is being requested to do is politically and morally unacceptable,” he instructed Army Instances.

The power limits aren’t nearly headcount, he defined. They constrain rotation cycles, coaching throughput and the mobilization surge capability Ukraine would wish if the ceasefire breaks.

A military locked at 800,000 can’t regenerate the way in which a wartime power must — not whereas holding a 600-mile entrance and defending cities from nightly drone barrages whereas Russia builds towards a 2026 recruitment goal of 409,000 troopers, army intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in a year-end interview with Suspilne .

RELATED <article itemscope="" style="--isOverlay:'';--isExpanding:'';--isCard:'';--isInset:'';--isLandscape:inherit;--isFluidImage:'';--isFixedHeight:inherit;--isCollapsing:'';--cardHInset:var(--horizontalGap);--cardVInset:var(--atype-space-s);--fontScale:var(--atype-scale-up-0, 1em);--relatedMargin:var(--horizontalGap);--floatDirection:left;--floatLeft:0;--floatRight:inherit;--floatMargin:0 max(var(--cardVInset), var(--atype-space-xs, 1rem)) 0 0;--flexDirection:inherit;--cg:max(var(--cardVInset), var(--atype-space-xs, 1rem));--aspectRatio:1:1;--imageWidth:800px;--landscapeImagePercent:50;--landscapeImageWidth:50%" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article" data-story-url="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/12/18/how-a-us-led-peace-plan-in-ukraine-is-reshaping-global-alliances/" data-story-id="JA6EIVYHEJCUXG7G7D3M4PFZF4" data-feature-id="false" data-story-index="1" data-promo-type="image" class="View__Article-sc-88btjd-1 jZpGZb View__StoryView-sc-88btjd-5 bjUdUx o-storyCard --up-0 --landscape --story"> <img data-chromatic="ignore" alt="" class="c-image" loading="lazy" src="https://www.armytimes.com/resizer/v2/5GAJEEK2FJDMJDGM4NYWJMYSFE.jpg?auth=e03a847e0cd2d0bbe5aec1bfad52734a41bc706c2de4f1d3be4d546caa56d321&width=8640&height=5760" srcset="https://www.armytimes.com/resizer/v2/5GAJEEK2FJDMJDGM4NYWJMYSFE.jpg?auth=e03a847e0cd2d0bbe5aec1bfad52734a41bc706c2de4f1d3be4d546caa56d321&width=800&height=533 800w, https://www.armytimes.com/resizer/v2/5GAJEEK2FJDMJDGM4NYWJMYSFE.jpg?auth=e03a847e0cd2d0bbe5aec1bfad52734a41bc706c2de4f1d3be4d546caa56d321&width=1024&height=682 1024w" width="8640" height="5760"/> Ukraine’s booming drone trade is a part of the equation, already outpacing the alliance it’s defending. Kyiv now claims a manufacturing capability of 4 million first-person-view drones yearly — greater than all NATO international locations mixed, in line with Bloomberg — with 96% constructed domestically, in line with Protection Minister Rustem Umerov.

The asymmetry was on show in September, when not less than 19 Russian drones crossed into NATO airspace over Poland. Dutch F‑35s and Polish F‑16s had been scrambled — backed by an Italian airborne early‑warning plane, a Belgian tanker and German Patriot batteries — to efficiently shoot down simply 4 of the 19, per Air & Space Forces Magazine .

Ian Kelly, a former U.S. ambassador to Georgia and the Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe, sees the sample clearly.

“You may’t unintentionally ship 20 missiles into Poland,” he instructed Army Instances. “And that was not the primary time.”

The incident prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to declare that Europe is already enmeshed in “a brand new kind of struggle,” in line with The Guardian .

Whereas the revised 20-point model raised the troop cap, it didn’t change the structure. The military that has extra expertise preventing modern-day Russia than any army in NATO would nonetheless be locked right into a power construction designed by Moscow — whereas the North Atlantic alliance watches its most succesful ahead buffer get gutted by the enemy it was constructed to cease.

A pause that favors Moscow A DMZ with out enforcement seems identical to a brand new entrance, in line with Hodges. And the safety ensures now being floated don’t clarify who fires again when Russia assessments it — which is why many Ukrainian and NATO planners like him see present proposals as a freeze, not an finish.

<img data-chromatic="ignore" alt="" class="c-image" loading="lazy" src="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/GSIDMS65HJEG7BGARDRFNOEI3A.jpg?auth=fe7665b047ed7ed9382a98d5b2b255fb6d6e30c53b529b2372812a4829733904&width=2734&height=1902" srcset="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/GSIDMS65HJEG7BGARDRFNOEI3A.jpg?auth=fe7665b047ed7ed9382a98d5b2b255fb6d6e30c53b529b2372812a4829733904&width=800&height=556 800w, https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/GSIDMS65HJEG7BGARDRFNOEI3A.jpg?auth=fe7665b047ed7ed9382a98d5b2b255fb6d6e30c53b529b2372812a4829733904&width=1024&height=712 1024w" width="2734" height="1902"/> Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, pictured right here in 2017 because the U.S. Military commander in Europe, mentioned the proposed peace plan in Ukraine with Army Instances. (Alik Keplicz/AP) The retired lieutenant basic pointed to Dayton. That deal froze the traces in Bosnia, with American and NATO troops on the bottom approved to implement the peace with deadly motion. Twenty-five years later, that framework nonetheless holds.

However the present proposals for peace in Ukraine supply no equal.

“We had Minsk-1 and Minsk-2,” Hodges stated. “You had ceasefires, you had observers and the Russians simply blew previous all that. By no means lived as much as it.

“If there’s going to be any kind of demilitarized space or a zone of separation like we had after the Dayton Peace Accords, there must be Europeans and Canadians in there with actual functionality — which have the authority to shoot again instantly when Russia violates it.”

Who, Hodges posed, will then fly reconnaissance over the buffer zone? Who responds when Russia probes the road — beneath what authority and on what timeline? And with the contact line shifting each day even now, which day’s positions get frozen?

“Except you will have any person there that’s a reputable deterrent, the Russians usually are not going to respect that,” he added. “And I don’t assume any severe folks imagine they are going to.”

Even when the skies go quiet, the mission doesn’t — quickly stopping the struggle doesn’t imply Ukraine can stand down. The entrance nonetheless must be manned; air protection nonetheless has to cowl cities and ahead positions; ammunition has to maintain flowing; medevac chains stored operational; rotation cycles maintained.

One senior European diplomat, granted anonymity by Army Instances to debate the delicate negotiations, stated even with a ceasefire and DMZ, the safety wants of Ukraine and Europe wouldn’t let up. Russia will preserve probing.

“The one motive that is nonetheless referred to as hybrid struggle is as a result of we've got determined to name it hybrid,” he stated.

The sample is already clear: Drones have already breached NATO airspace. Sabotage plots and cyberattacks have been uncovered throughout the continent and the U.S. Russian probes cease simply in need of triggering Article 5.

“When does it cross the road?” he added. “When do we've got a Sarajevo second?”

The safety ensures are supposed to shut these useful resource and safety gaps whereas stopping a return to struggle — however they don’t, the diplomat stated. And everybody on the negotiating desk is aware of it.

“Does anyone significantly imagine that this administration would reply to a Russian drone assault on Ukraine as if it was a Russian drone assault on New York or Washington?” Hodges requested, referring to the “platinum” ensures U.S. officers floated earlier this month.

“In fact not.”

Who pays to carry the road Even when the ensures maintain, the maths doesn’t add up: Russia can afford to pull out its invasion — Ukraine can’t.

World Financial institution figures put Russia’s 2024 GDP at $2.17 trillion; Ukraine’s at $190.7 billion — an 11-to-1 ratio.

<img data-chromatic="ignore" alt="" class="c-image" loading="lazy" src="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/RRWL32YNFJF6PPR7PUSZS3IYKE.jpg?auth=83192e02dfecd0ee0bdd17c65ab1d1e26c650881e0783c84a0a45e7e55307e66&width=6000&height=4002" srcset="https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/RRWL32YNFJF6PPR7PUSZS3IYKE.jpg?auth=83192e02dfecd0ee0bdd17c65ab1d1e26c650881e0783c84a0a45e7e55307e66&width=800&height=533 800w, https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/v2/RRWL32YNFJF6PPR7PUSZS3IYKE.jpg?auth=83192e02dfecd0ee0bdd17c65ab1d1e26c650881e0783c84a0a45e7e55307e66&width=1024&height=683 1024w" width="6000" height="4002"/> Newly recruited Ukrainian troopers follow in a trench throughout army coaching on March 13, 2025, in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine. (Paula Bronstein/Getty Photographs) Ukraine carries the very best army burden on the earth, over a 3rd of its GDP yearly, in line with a SIPRI evaluation. However Russia can price range to maintain its struggle machine working long-term: Moscow used about 7.2% of its GDP on protection spending in 2025 — or 15.5 trillion rubles, roughly Ukraine’s whole annual financial output.

That imbalance shapes every little thing that follows, together with how lengthy Russia can maintain the struggle, and the way a lot outdoors cash Ukraine wants simply to remain within the battle.

If sanctions ease beneath any deal, Russia’s protection industrial base recovers on a timeline Ukraine can’t match. The cash is already a battle — the EU has spent months attempting to unlock frozen Russian property, with Belgium demanding further safeguards which have stalled the method, complicating EU efforts to show frozen wealth into Ukraine assist at scale, in line with Politico .

The one factor that adjustments Putin’s math is making the struggle too costly to proceed.

“That’s how this struggle ends, when Russia can not pay for what they’re doing,” Hodges stated. “And we gained’t get there by killing one other half one million Russians. Putin doesn’t care about that.”

In his view, meaning doing what European leaders have spent three years suspending: unfreezing the cash in Belgium and getting it to Kyiv, placing actual sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, going after the secondary patrons — Turkey, India and China — who preserve Russia’s oil income flowing.

Kelly defined that the one “constant message” from Washington has been “that there isn't any extra ‘free lunch,’ no extra massive multi-billion greenback packages.”

That leaves European allies holding each the deterrence mission and the sustainment invoice with out the skilled companion they constructed their newest protection posture round.

If the U.S. slows its funding of Ukraine or European protection spending sufficient, or continues to shirk the sanctions marketing campaign towards Russia, the burden falls on Europe — on allies who then must maintain Ukraine and deter Russia on the identical time, with a weaker ahead buffer than that they had earlier than any deal was signed.

“The Europeans have failed,” Hodges stated, “which is why Putin refers back to the European leaders as ‘piglets’ — as a result of he's fairly positive that Europeans usually are not going to do what’s needed.”

If the West desires a peace plan that holds, he added, it has to do what the present frameworks don’t: implement violations in actual time, preserve Ukraine armed and funded and make the struggle financially insufferable for Moscow.

“What we’ve completed to date hasn’t delivered,” the diplomat admitted. “So, how can we step up our assist in a manner which may affect the calculus in Moscow?”

Nobody has answered that query but. What they've is a framework that caps Ukraine’s military, leaves enforcement undefined and asks allies to hold a burden it hasn’t constructed the capability to carry. It’s much less a peace plan than a stress check, officers say, and from the place Europe sits, it’s failing.