Viktor Orban's playbook is admired overseas however weakening at dwelling

[ad_1] <img sizes="96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/72a2/live/4f32ef40-5e53-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Nick Thorpe profile image" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Nick Thorpe BBC Budapest Correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/af43/live/06c430b0-5e54-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp" loading="eager" alt="BBC Two treated images, with Orban at the forefront, and Trump and Vance as smaller figures behind" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> BBC Hungarians have a well-liked saying: "Visszanyal a fagyi". Translation: "The ice-cream licks again." In different phrases, be careful, as a result of what you get pleasure from devouring, may get pleasure from devouring you.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has assiduously attacked a liberal world view for no less than twenty years, remodeling the nation into what he has variously known as an "intolerant democracy" and nation of "Christian liberty".

In the meantime he has drawn admirers world wide, together with US Deputy President JD Vance and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. US President Donald Trump has known as Orban "sensible" and "a tricky individual".

"One of the revered males, they name him a robust man," Trump stated in September 2024.

Forward of the following Hungarian election in April 2026, the LGBTQ neighborhood seem like amongst Orban's targets – his Fidesz occasion rubber stamped a brand new regulation that sought to ban Delight from going forward. And but between 100,000 and 200,000 folks turned out final month - up from simply 35,000 final 12 months.

However watching big crowds march by means of Budapest to rejoice homosexual satisfaction, free speech and the suitable to assemble - all in defiance of the ban - many marvel: may the liberal worldview chunk again?

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cc97/live/01d7ef30-5d9e-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Attila Kisbenedek via Getty A mass of people at Budapest pride, with a large LGBT flag being carried by the crowd" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Attila Kisbenedek by way of Getty 1000's of individuals turned out for Budapest Delight in defiance of the ban

And in some methods, that in itself is the unsuitable query. Orban's energy is certainly now below risk, however not in the way in which – or from the folks – one may anticipate.

As the true problem comes not from the liberal left, however the centre proper.

A shock challenger from Orban's personal circle

Peter Magyar, a 44-year-old previously of Orban's personal circle, appeared as a shock challenger in February 2024.

This adopted a scandal involving a choice to pardon a person convicted of protecting up youngster sexual abuse that led to President Katalin Novak resigning on dwell tv. Justice Minister Judit Varga (Magyar's ex-wife) additionally resigned - and the scandal dealt a blow to Orban's declare to face for conventional household values.

Magyar gave a protracted interview to Partizan, the flagship opposition YouTube channel, blasting what he known as the nepotism and corruption of the governing occasion.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5b76/live/f7c40e80-5e6e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Janos Kummer/Getty Images Peter Magyar holds the Hungarian flag at a campaign rally " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Janos Kummer/Getty Pictures Peter Magyar appeared as a shock challenger in February 2024

Robert Puzser, an opposition activist who heads a brand new, non-party initiative known as Residents Resistance, says that Magyar is treading rigorously, amid Fidesz officers and sure quarters of the media attempting to painting him as a liberal or leftist.

Magyar, he argues, is attempting to keep away from alienating his conservative base within the countryside, which till not too long ago was Orban's undisputed heartland. And he has created his personal highly effective narrative – of a Hungary that's collapsing.

Most nationwide polls put Tisza, Hungary's essential opposition occasion led by Magyar, between 9% and 18% forward of Orban's occasion. Just one, the pro-government thinktank Viewpoint Institute, nonetheless places Fidesz narrowly forward.

The parlous state of state hospitals, state colleges, and state railways are all getting used in opposition to Orban by Magyar and his occasion. Now, Orban's long-established playbook, so admired overseas, is beginning to fail at dwelling – and it leaves Hungary nearer than ever to ousting a person who has dominated it for the previous 15 years.

Orban's tried-and-tested technique

Orban has been in energy for 19 of the 35 years because the fall of Communism in 1990, making him one of the crucial skilled leaders within the EU. Within the early Nineteen Nineties, Fidesz broke away from its liberal roots, and Orban instilled a brand new conservative, nationalist, right-wing identification.

In 2015, as scores of individuals travelled to Europe asking for asylum, Orban referred to them as a part of "a migratory motion composed of financial migrants, refugees and likewise overseas fighters". He has opposed navy assist for Ukraine because the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and likewise opposes Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

A cornerstone of Orban's playbook has been his capacity to determine what his voters concern: this was true of every of his landslide victories, in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ae78/live/283dcc80-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters/Lisa Leutner Someone with a mask of a treated image of Orban on the back of their head, with a LGBT flag in the background" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters/Lisa Leutner Viktor Orban misplaced energy in 2002 then returned to workplace in 2010

A public opinion survey by the Publicus company carried out from 23-25 June discovered 45% of individuals had been in favour of the Delight march in Budapest and 48% had been in opposition to. Simply 8% of Fidesz voters authorized, nonetheless, so it was a flag to rally his personal camp behind.

For the reason that march, Fidesz supporters have shared some provocative pictures from Budapest Delight, together with nudity and the story of a person arrested by police for masturbating in public.

After the occasion, folks singer Marianna Majorosi, whose tune was carried out throughout a drag queen present on the Delight occasion, stated, "it deeply upsets me that as a performer I've no proper to forestall somebody from doing this to my voice". Orban expressed his assist for her on Fb.

In 2022, the federal government organised a referendum on youngster safety to coincide with the overall election. The questions included: "Do you assist permitting youngsters in public colleges to take part in sexual orientation lessons with out parental consent?" And, "do you assist the promotion of gender reassignment for minors?"

A complete of three.7 million Hungarians took half, with the overwhelming majority voting, "No". Authorities officers have since cited that referendum end result as proof that Hungarians oppose what Delight stands for.

The winner takes all

One other key to Orban's playbook is that the winner takes all. Orban misplaced energy in 2002 then returned to workplace in 2010, and in a brand new electoral regulation of 2011 he shrank Parliament from 386 seats to 199 and abolished the second spherical of elections, successfully channelling votes to the strongest occasion.

Whereas the fractious opposition events fought for the crumbs, Fidesz took the cake. They took 45% of the vote in 2014, which translated to 67% of seats in Parliament. The previous system of proportional illustration was changed by one thing nearer to the first-past-the-post system, as used within the UK.

He has additionally appointed Fidesz-friendly judges to the Constitutional and Supreme Courtroom.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bd6e/live/2e4e4e70-5e6f-11f0-960d-e9f1088a89fe.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Tim Sloan/ AFP via Getty A dated image of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban answering questions during a press conference " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Tim Sloan/ AFP by way of Getty Defeat for Orban, who has dominated Hungary for the previous 15 years, can be monumental

In 2014 he stated that the "intolerant state" he was developing "doesn't reject the basic rules of liberalism corresponding to freedom… but it surely doesn't make this ideology the central component of state organisation".

Orban continues to be struggling to seek out the suitable identify for his invention. András Lánczi, a thinker extensively thought-about a robust affect on the prime minister, calls it "political realism… Concepts primarily based on expertise relatively than the utopias and moralising that leftists like a lot".

How he gained over world leaders

Orban guidelines by bullet-points, easy messages culled from unpublished opinion surveys commissioned by his authorities to seek out out what's worrying the general public. Professional-government media, social media, and nationwide billboards then act as an echo chamber for these messages.

Some leaders abroad seem to admire his method, whereas many MAGA Republicans love Orban for confronting "woke" tradition.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6832/live/315cb2e0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters/Carlos Barria Orban and Trump shaking hands" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters/Carlos Barria Trump has stated of Orban: "They name him a robust man. He is a tricky individual"

The Slovak and Georgian prime ministers are additionally seemingly agency admirers, as are Alice Weidel (Various for Germany), Geert Wilders (Dutch Social gathering for Freedom), and Herbert Kickl (Austrian Freedom Social gathering).

Orban has instilled in his countryfolk "a brand new self-confidence", Mr Lánczi suggests, after centuries of overseas rule. "This nation has turn out to be stronger, and we wish to imagine that we aren't inferior to every other nations."

However simply as he reaches the peak of his fame overseas, the carpet is seemingly being tugged from below his ft at dwelling.

Are cracks beginning to seem?

Peter Magyar has toured the nation nearly constantly, attacking the federal government for circumstances in hospitals, a failing rail community and public service wages which can be among the many lowest in Europe.

He attracts giant crowds, and his visits to hospitals, colleges or care properties are broadcast dwell on Fb, with many attracting tens of hundreds of views.

"We'll re-build this nation collectively, brick by brick," Magyar repeats. "Brick by brick!" chant the crowds, in unison.

Fidesz publicists have dismissed him as a hole "messiah", or a traitor from their very own ranks. However Magyar has given the general public an alternate imaginative and prescient of repairing the homeland.

Orban has himself began to make some errors, like backing the ultra-nationalist candidate George Simion within the latest Romanian presidential election, regardless of a protracted historical past of anti-Hungarian remarks. He thought-about him to be a helpful ally within the European Parliament the place he shares Orban's message that "Christian Europe" is below risk. However Simion was the shock loser of the second spherical of that election.

Orban's failure to cease Delight, after he promised his supporters it could not happen, additionally suggests some weakening of his energy.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f712/live/44f2bca0-5d9e-11f0-a40e-a1af2950b220.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="SOPA Images via Getty People celebrate at Budapest pride, some are wearing bright clothing and waving flags" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> SOPA Pictures by way of Getty Viktor Orban has dominated Hungary for the previous 15 years

However maybe most critically, the Hungarian economic system, closely depending on the German market, particularly German vehicles manufactured in Hungary, is stagnating. Orban can now not ship an improved lifestyle.

Even András Lánczi, who believes Orban will win the following election, says: "Unavoidably, there are such a lot of conflicts throughout such a very long time [in power]", conflicts that "erode belief, erode respect, erode quite a lot of constructive issues that unite that political neighborhood."

Battle for the soul of Hungary

Defeat for Orban, who has dominated Hungary for the previous 15 years, can be monumental.

"Orban is ready to mobilise his core citizens, which is about two million folks, but it surely's not sufficient to win the elections," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst near Fidesz.

The Tisza occasion now additionally has about two million supporters. Greater than 5 million Hungarians voted within the 2022 election, with a 69% turnout - so the election in April 2026 will probably be determined by those that are presently undecided.

"We're on the lookout for coverage points that may entice these 500,000 to at least one million extra voters who're wanted to outnumber the opposition," Mr Kiszelly defined.

In 2022, amid the conflict in Ukraine, Orban portrayed himself because the "peace" candidate, and claimed the opposition would drag Hungary into conflict. It was a profitable tactic in a rustic, usually overrun in its historical past by overseas armies. In 2026, Ukraine may assist Orban win once more, Mr Kiszelly believes.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c36d/live/4df58f80-5d9e-11f0-b5c5-012c5796682d.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Valery Sharifulin via Getty Orban and Putin shake hands " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Valery Sharifulin by way of Getty He depicts his good relations with Putin as a assure of low cost Russian fuel and oil

But if the conflict in Ukraine is over by then, Orban "the political realist" will be capable of declare credit score because the Western chief who warned that Ukraine can't defeat the may of Russia. Or, if the conflict continues, Fidesz may step up its marketing campaign in opposition to Manfred Weber, chief of the European Individuals's Social gathering (EPP), which helps continued Western navy provides for Ukraine.

"Orban can current himself, as soon as once more, because the dove of peace," Mr Kiszelly explains.

Orban additionally depicts his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a assure of low cost Russian fuel and oil for Hungarian customers - continually below risk from EU sanctions in opposition to Russia. (Although Orban has not efficiently blocked any of the 18 packages of EU sanctions in opposition to Russia thus far.)

However his opponents hope that Tisza, and Magyar, can keep their polling lead. Mr Puzser, the opposition activist, believes Tisza will win "ultimately".

He describes Hungary as being at a crossroads. "There's a path resulting in a democratic transition from this semi-authoritarian, semi-constitutional system," he argues, "and there's a despotic path resulting in a dictatorship."

As for Orban, he stated in March that there was a wrestle "for the soul of the Western world" – some see subsequent April's election as a battle for the soul of Hungary.

Prime picture credit: Anna Moneymaker/ Leon Neal/ Pierre Crom by way of Getty

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