Was Iran months away from producing a nuclear bomb?

[ad_1] <img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/3d0e/live/0ced2c00-48d1-11f0-8feb-e38ae274979f.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="NurPhoto via Getty Images The Bushehr nuclear power plant is seen in a coastal village on the northern coast of the Gulf in Bushehr province, Iran (24 April 2024)" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> NurPhoto by way of Getty Pictures Iran insists its nuclear programme is fully peaceable and that it enriches uranium to provide gasoline for energy vegetation like Bushehr

Israel has struck dozens of targets throughout Iran, damaging the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and assassinating high army commanders and nuclear scientists in Tehran.

After the primary wave of assaults on Thursday night time, the Iranian overseas minister condemned what he called Israel's "reckless" attacks on his nation's "peaceable nuclear amenities". Iran has since launched retaliatory air strikes on Israel.

Abbas Araghchi mentioned Natanz was operated beneath the monitoring of the worldwide nuclear watchdog, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA), and that the strikes on the ability risked a "radiological catastrophe".

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the operation was essential to "roll again the Iranian risk to Israel's very survival".

He mentioned Israel had acted as a result of "if not stopped, Iran may produce a nuclear weapon in a really quick time".

"It might be a yr. It might be inside a couple of months," he warned.

Is there proof Iran was engaged on a nuclear bomb?

The Israeli army mentioned it had accrued intelligence displaying that "concrete progress" had been made "within the Iranian regime's efforts to provide weapons elements tailored for a nuclear bomb", together with a uranium metallic core and a neutron supply initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion.

Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation coverage on the US-based Arms Management Affiliation, mentioned Israel's prime minister "didn't current any clear or compelling proof that Iran was on the point of weaponizing".

"Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months," she instructed the BBC, referring to the time it could take Iran to accumulate sufficient fissile materials for one bomb if it selected to take action.

"Equally, the evaluation that Iran may develop a crude nuclear weapon inside a couple of months just isn't new."

She mentioned a few of Iran's nuclear actions can be relevant to creating a bomb, however US intelligence companies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponization work.

This March, Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard instructed Congress that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was "at its highest levels" and "unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons" .

However she additionally mentioned the US intelligence group "continues to evaluate that Iran just isn't constructing a nuclear weapon and Supreme Chief [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003".

"If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran's proliferation danger, Israel would possible have shared that intelligence with the US and the preliminary assault would possible have focused all of Iran's key nuclear amenities," Ms Davenport added.

Final week, the IAEA mentioned in its newest quarterly report that Iran had amassed sufficient uranium enriched as much as 60% purity - a brief, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to probably make 9 nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of great concern", given the proliferation dangers, it added.

The company additionally mentioned it couldn't present assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was completely peaceable as a result of Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles found by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear websites.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0598/live/d847d580-48cc-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map showing sites in north-western Iran which Israel says its forces struck on 13 June 2025" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> What can we find out about Iran's nuclear programme?

Iran has all the time mentioned that its nuclear programme is fully peaceable and that it has by no means sought to develop a nuclear weapon.

Nevertheless, a decade-long investigation by the IAEA found evidence that Iran conducted "a range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device" from the late 1980s until 2003 , when initiatives beneath what was referred to as "Challenge Amad" have been halted.

Iran continued with some actions till 2009 - when Western powers revealed the development of the Fordo underground enrichment facility - however after that there have been "no credible indications" of weapons growth, the company concluded.

In 2015, Iran agreed a cope with six world powers beneath which it accepted restrictions on its nuclear actions and allowed rigorous monitoring by the IAEA's inspectors in return for reduction from crippling sanctions.

Key limits coated its manufacturing of enriched uranium, which is used to make reactor gasoline but in addition nuclear weapons.

However US President Donald Trump deserted the deal throughout his first time period in 2018, saying it did too little to cease a pathway to a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions.

Iran retaliated by more and more breaching the restrictions - significantly these regarding enrichment.

Beneath the nuclear deal, no enrichment was permitted at Fordo for 15 years. Nevertheless, in 2021 Iran resumed enriching uranium to twenty% purity.

On Thursday, the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the primary time in 20 years.

Iran mentioned it could reply to the decision by organising a brand new uranium enrichment facility at a "safe location" and by changing first-generation centrifuges used to complement uranium with extra superior, sixth-generation machines on the Fordo enrichment plant.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0763/live/c0bc63c0-48ce-11f0-9471-e380f647874e.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Iranian rescuers work at the site of a damaged building, following Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran (13 June 2025)" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Israeli strikes in Tehran on Thursday night time focused nuclear scientists and army commanders

What injury has Israel achieved to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?

The Israeli army mentioned on Friday that its first spherical of air strikes broken the underground centrifuge corridor at Natanz, in addition to essential infrastructure that enabled the positioning to function.

The IAEA's director normal, Rafael Grossi, instructed the UN Safety Council that the above-ground pilot fuel enrichment plant (PFEP) and electricity infrastructure at Natanz was destroyed . There was no indication of a bodily assault on the underground corridor, however that the lack of energy might have broken the centrifuges there, he added.

The US-based Institute for Science and Worldwide Safety mentioned the destruction of the PFEP was vital as a result of the ability had been used to produced 60%-enriched uranium and in addition to develop superior centrifuges.

Ms Davenport additionally mentioned the strikes on Natanz would improve Iran's "breakout time", however that it was too quickly to evaluate the complete influence.

"We won't have a transparent image of how rapidly Iran may resume operations there or if Iran was capable of divert uranium till the IAEA can entry the positioning," she defined.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bc40/live/291cbc50-48cd-11f0-84b6-6bf0f66205f1.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Radar image shows damage at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility (13 June 2025)" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Afterward Friday, Iran knowledgeable the IAEA that Israel had attacked the Fordo enrichment plant and the Isfahan Nuclear Expertise Centre.

The Israeli army mentioned a strike in Isfahan had "dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and extra infrastructure".

"As long as Fordo stays operational, Iran nonetheless poses a near-term proliferation danger. Tehran has the choice to ratchet up enrichment to weapons grade ranges on the website or divert uranium to an undeclared location," Ms Davenport mentioned.

Israel's prime minister additionally mentioned the operation would proceed for "as many days because it takes to take away this risk".

However that's an unrealistic objective, in response to Ms Davenport.

"Strikes can destroy amenities and goal scientists however can't erase Iran's nuclear data. Iran can rebuild, and extra rapidly now than prior to now as a consequence of its advances in uranium enrichment," she mentioned.