What Iran's subsequent transfer might be

[ad_1] Frank Gardner BBC safety correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/83c2/live/27de3e60-4f5b-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters Smoke can be seen as during a missile attack from Iran on Israel, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tel Aviv, Israel, June 22, 2025. " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Iran and Israel have continued to fireside missiles at one another following the US strikes in a single day

Iran has responded furiously to the in a single day US airstrikes on three of its nuclear websites, vowing what it calls "eternal penalties".

However past the phrases, there will likely be feverish discussions going down on the highest degree inside Iran's safety and intelligence institution.

Ought to they escalate the battle by means of retaliation towards US pursuits, or, as US President Donald Trump has referred to as on them to do, negotiate, which in follow means giving up all nuclear enrichment inside Iran?

This inside debate will likely be going down at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will likely be wanting over their shoulders, questioning if they're about to be the subsequent goal of an Israeli precision airstrike or whether or not somebody within the room has already betrayed them to Mossad, Israel's abroad spy company.

Broadly talking, there are three completely different strategic programs of motion now open to Iran. None of them are danger free, and uppermost within the minds of these taking the choices would be the survival of the Islamic Republic regime.

Retaliate laborious and shortly

Many will likely be baying for blood. Iran has been humiliated, first by Israel, now by what it has typically previously referred to as 'the Nice Devil', its time period for the US.

Iran's ongoing alternate of fireplace with Israel continues into its tenth day however retaliating towards the US brings an entire new degree of danger, not only for Iran however for the entire area.

Iran is believed to retain about half of its authentic inventory of round 3,000 missiles, having used up and misplaced the rest in exchanges of fireplace with Israel.

Iran has a goal listing of round 20 US bases to select from within the broader Center East.

One of many nearest and most evident is the sprawling headquarters of the highly effective US Navy's Fifth Fleet at Mina Salman in Bahrain. However Iran could also be reluctant to strike at a neighbouring Gulf Arab state. Extra doubtless, maybe, can be to make use of its proxies in Iraq and Syria to assault any one of many comparatively remoted US bases at At-Tanf, Ain Al-Asad or Erbil. Iran has kind right here.

When Trump ordered the assassination of Iran's Quds Drive chief Qassim Suleimani in 2020, Iran responded by concentrating on US army personnel in Iraq however prevented killing any by giving prior discover. It could not accomplish that this time.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2e86/live/7c094650-4f61-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters A combination picture shows satellite images over Fordow, before and after the U.S. struck the underground nuclear facility, near Qom, Iran, June 2, 2025 (L) and June 22, 2025. " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Satellite tv for pc pictures exhibiting earlier than and after the US struck the nuclear facility

Iran might additionally launch 'swarm assaults' on US Navy warships utilizing drones and quick torpedo boats, one thing that the Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy has practiced exhaustively over time.

The purpose, if it went down this route, can be to overwhelm US naval defences by means of sheer numbers. It might additionally ask its allies in Yemen, the Houthis, to renew their assaults on Western transport passing between the Indian Ocean and the Crimson Sea.

There are additionally financial targets Iran might strike, however this might antagonise its Gulf Arab neighbours who've not too long ago reached an uneasy modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic.

The most important and most damaging goal right here can be choking off the very important Strait of Hormuz, by means of which over 20 per cent of the world's oil provides cross each day. Iran might do that by sowing sea mines, making a deadly hazard for each naval and business transport.

Then there may be cyber. Iran, together with North Korea, Russia and China, has a complicated offensive cyber functionality. Inserting harmful malware into US networks or companies is undoubtedly one choice into account.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ee64/live/fda77100-4f5c-11f0-9ba7-07cfb23c20d5.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP via Getty Images Iran foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, speaks during a press conference at the Lutfi Krdar Congress Center on the sideline of the 51st session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in Istanbul on June 22, 2025. " class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> AFP by way of Getty Photos Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi stated US President Donald Trump has "betrayed" his nation

Retaliate later

This may imply ready till the present pressure has subsided and launching a shock assault at a time of Iran's selecting, when US bases have been not on most alert.

Such an assault might additionally goal US diplomatic, consular or commerce missions, or prolong to the assassination of people. The danger right here for Iran, after all, is that it might doubtless invoke renewed US assaults simply as unusual Iranians are returning to regular life.

Trump says Iran should make peace or face future assaults after US strikes

Do not retaliate

This may take huge restraint on Iran's half however it might spare it from additional US assaults. It might even select the diplomatic route and rejoin negotiations with the US, though Iran's international minister identified that Iran by no means left these negotiations, that it was, in his phrases, Israel and the US that blew them up.

However restarting the US-Iran negotiations in Muscat, Rome or wherever, would solely be price doing if Iran was ready to just accept the crimson line that each the US and Israel are insisting on. Specifically that for Iran to maintain its civil nuclear programme, it should ship all uranium exterior the nation for enrichment.

Doing nothing after taking such a battering additionally makes the Iranian regime look weak, particularly in spite of everything its warnings of dire repercussions if the US did assault. Ultimately it could determine that the chance of weakening its grip on its inhabitants outweighs the price of any additional US assaults.