What the US and Iran do subsequent could possibly be much more momentous

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<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7955/live/ba7ea460-4f5d-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.png.webp" loading="eager" alt="BBC A woman holds up a poster of Iran's Supreme Leader" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> BBC For many years, the US and Iran have rigorously prevented crossing a harmful crimson line right into a direct army confrontation.

One American president after one other held again from deploying their army may in opposition to the Islamic Republic for concern of sinking the US into doubtlessly probably the most perilous Center East struggle of all.

Now, the commander-in-chief, who promised to be a president of peace, has crossed this Rubicon with direct army strikes on Tehran's nuclear websites – probably the most consequential transfer but within the second time period of a president who has prided himself on breaking all of the previous guidelines.

It is an unprecedented second upsetting alarm in capitals the world over.

Iran's subsequent transfer could possibly be much more momentous. Its 86-year-old supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now reported to be sheltering in a bunker, has spent almost 4 a long time cautiously taking part in an extended recreation in opposition to his strongest enemy to guard his most necessary asset – the Islamic Republic.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9dee/live/147db100-4fb2-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="shutterstock Trump speaking at a microphone, surrounded by Marco Rubio, JD Vance and Pete Hegseth" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> shutterstock The commander-in-chief, who promised to be a president of peace, has crossed a Rubicon with direct army strikes on Tehran's nuclear websites

If he does too little, he'll lose face; if he does an excessive amount of, he might lose all the pieces.

"Khamenei's subsequent strikes would be the most consequential not only for his personal survival however for the way he'll do down in historical past, " says Sanam Vakil, Director of the Center East and North Africa programme at suppose tank, Chatham Home.

"His poisoned chalice is doubtlessly stronger than the one Khomeini drank in 1988," she continues, referring to the reluctant determination of Iran's first revolutionary chief to bitterly settle for a ceasefire within the devastating Iran-Iraq struggle.

"This isn't a struggle Iran needs"

Previously ten days, intense Israeli strikes have inflicted extra injury on Iran's chain of command and army {hardware} than its eight-year struggle with Iraq, which nonetheless casts an extended shadow throughout Iranian society.

Israeli assaults have eradicated many within the prime ranks of Iran's safety forces together with main nuclear scientists. America's entry into this battle has now ratcheted up the strain.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), based within the aftermath of Iran's 1979 revolution, is defiantly warning of retaliation in opposition to the US that would go away it with "lasting remorse".

However behind a pointy confrontation lie pressing calculations to keep away from calamitous miscalculation.

"This isn't a struggle Iran needs," says Hamidreza Aziz, of the Center East Council on World Affairs. "However we're already seeing arguments by regime supporters that, whatever the extent of precise injury the US may need inflicted, the picture of Iran as a robust nation [and] as a regional energy, has been shaken so dramatically [that] it requires a response."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2d20/live/c492b8d0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Smoke in the background and a skyline of buildings in Tel Aviv" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Smoke can seen in Tel Aviv throughout a missile assault on 22 June

Each response is dangerous, nevertheless. A direct assault on one in every of about 20 US bases within the Center East, or any of the greater than 40,000 American troops, would doubtless set off main US retaliation.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway for a fifth of world oil site visitors, might additionally backfire by upsetting Arab allies within the area, in addition to China, the principle buyer of Iran's personal oil. Western naval powers may be drawn in to guard this main "choke level" and avert vital financial shocks.

And what Iran had considered its "ahead defence," its community of proxies and companions throughout the area have all been weakened or worn out by Israeli assaults and assassinations over the past 20 months of struggle.

It is not clear if an appropriate threshold exists for Iran to be seen to return hearth with out upsetting America's wrath, which might enable either side to tug again from the brink.

This tortuous relationship was examined a minimum of as soon as earlier than. 5 years in the past, when President Trump ordered the assassination of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani with a drone strike in Baghdad, many feared it could spark a vicious spiral. However Iran telegraphed its counter assault by way of Iraqi officers, focusing on sections of US bases which prevented killing US personnel or inflicting vital injury.

However this second is of far higher magnitude.

"The US, not Iran, betrayed diplomacy"

President Trump, who had repeatedly expressed his choice to "do a take care of Iran" slightly than "bombing the hell out of it" now appears to be firmly in Israel's nook. He described Iran because the "bully of the Center East," bent on constructing a nuclear bomb – a conclusion not shared by earlier US intelligence assessments.

Intelligence groups at the moment are analysing intimately the outcomes of what the Pentagon says was the "largest B-2 operational strike in US historical past". It inflicted "extraordinarily extreme injury and destruction" to Iran's primary nuclear websites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.

Solely "bunker-busting" bombs might penetrate the Fordow facility buried deep in a mountain.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/42ec/live/c97c59f0-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Satellite image from above showing the Fordow site - it shows clouds of smoke and dust" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Reuters Satellite tv for pc imagery over the Fordow nuclear website after the US strikes

President Trump is now urging Iran to "come to peace".

However Iran now views the US's diplomatic path as give up too. In Geneva on Friday, the place Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi met his European counterparts, a tricky message was conveyed that Washington anticipated Tehran to cut back its nuclear enrichment to zero.

It is a demand Iran rejects as a violation of its sovereign proper to counterpoint uranium as a part of a civilian nuclear programme.

It now considers President Trump's diplomatic effort, together with 5 rounds of primarily oblique talks carried out by his particular envoy Steve Witkoff, to be an elaborate deception.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/348c/live/d4c154a0-4f60-11f0-a466-d54f65b60deb.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Shutterstock Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi speaking at a press conference with flags beside him" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Shutterstock Iranian international minister Abbas Araghchi at a press convention after US forces struck three key Iranian websites

Israel unleashed its army marketing campaign two days earlier than the sixth spherical of negotiations in Muscat. The US entered the struggle two days after President Trump mentioned he wished to permit a two-week window to present diplomacy an opportunity.

Now it says it will not return to the negotiating desk whereas Israeli and American bombs are nonetheless falling.

"It was not Iran, however the US who betrayed diplomacy," Araghchi advised a information convention in Istanbul. Throughout this, he met with international ministers of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Convention who condemned "the aggression of Israel" and expressed their "nice concern concerning this harmful escalation".

Iran has additionally tried to spotlight an onslaught in opposition to its territory which violates the UN Constitution in addition to warnings from the Worldwide Atomic Power Company that nuclear amenities ought to by no means be attacked, "regardless of the context or circumstances".

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8636/live/186f5e90-4854-11f0-bbaa-4bc03e0665b7.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Donald Trump greets Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on 7 April 2025 in Washington DC" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Photos President Trump can be pulled in a single path by Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu, however comes below different strain at dwelling

European leaders are additionally calling for an pressing de-escalation and a path to curb Iran's nuclear programme by way of mediation, not missiles.

However additionally they reiterate that Iran can't be allowed to amass a nuclear bomb. They regard Tehran's 60 per cent enrichment of uranium, inside straightforward vary of 90 per cent weapons grade, as an ominous indication of its intentions.

"Iran is prone to underplay the injury to its websites and demand its nuclear program has survived these unprecedented assaults," argues Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Center East and North Africa programme on the European Council on Overseas Relations.

"The US might over-exaggerate the injury, so the Trump can declare army victory with out getting dragged into additional strikes."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/e2d8/live/ce72a540-4f60-11f0-86d5-3b52b53af158.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Shutterstock A woman walks past a large billboard that says Thank you, Mr President and shows Donald Trump's face" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Shutterstock A billboard in Tel Aviv thanking Trump, amid battle with Iran

President Trump can be pulled in a single path by Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose personal formidable forces will proceed attacking Iran to inflict much more injury, triggering but extra Iranian salvos.

However the US chief can be coming below strain at dwelling from lawmakers who say he acted with out congressional authorisation, and supporters who imagine he has damaged his promise to maintain America out of prolonged wars.

And this second is extensively anticipated to pay attention the minds of Iran's hardline decision-makers on easy methods to restore deterrence as they attempt to keep away from being focused themselves.

"That is the nice irony," warns Ms Geranmayeh. "Though Trump has sought to get rid of the nuclear risk from Iran, he has now made it much more doubtless that Iran turns into a nuclear state."

Lead picture: A demonstrator holds a portrait of Iran's Supreme Chief. Pictures credit score: Reuters

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