What Trump’s $100,000 visa means for India and US industries

[ad_1] Soutik Biswas and Nikhil Inamdar BBC Information

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c579/live/a8fed5c0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Getty Images President Donald Trump takes a question from a reporter before signing executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House on September 19, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump signed two executive orders, establishing the "Trump Gold Card" and introducing a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas. " class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Trump has shocked the tech world by asserting an as much as 50-fold hike in the price of expert employee permits

Panic, confusion after which a hasty White Home climbdown - it was a weekend of whiplash for tons of of 1000's of Indians on H-1B visas.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump shocked the tech world by asserting an as much as 50-fold hike in the price of expert employee permits - to $100,000. Chaos adopted: Silicon Valley companies urged workers to not journey exterior the nation, abroad employees scrambled for flights, and immigration legal professionals labored additional time to decode the order.

By Saturday, the White Home sought to calm the storm, clarifying that the payment utilized solely to new candidates and was a one-off. But, the long-standing H-1B programme - criticised for undercutting American employees however praised for attracting world expertise - nonetheless faces an unsure future.

Even with the tweak, the coverage successfully shutters the H-1B pipeline that, for 3 a long time, powered the American dream for hundreds of thousands of Indians and, extra importantly, equipped the lifeblood of expertise to US industries.

That pipeline reshaped each nations. For India, the H-1B turned a automobile of aspiration: small-town coders turned greenback earners, households vaulted into the center class, and full industries - from airways to actual property - catered to a brand new class of globe-trotting Indians.

For the US, it meant an infusion of expertise that stuffed labs, lecture rooms, hospitals and start-ups. In the present day, Indian-origin executives run Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian medical doctors make up almost 6% of the US doctor workforce.

Indians dominate the H-1B programme, making up greater than 70% of the recipients lately. (China was the second-largest supply, making up about 12% of beneficiaries.)

In tech, their presence is even starker: a Freedom of Data Act request in 2015 confirmed over 80% of "pc" jobs went to Indian nationals - a share business insiders say hasn't shifted a lot.

The medical sector underlines the stakes. In 2023, greater than 8,200 H-1Bs have been accepted to work typically drugs and surgical hospitals.

India is the most important single supply of worldwide medical graduates (who're sometimes in US on H-1B visas) and make up about 22% of all worldwide medical doctors. With worldwide medical doctors forming as much as 1 / 4 of US physicians, Indian H-1B holders seemingly account for round 5-6% of the full.

Consultants say pay information exhibits why Trump's new $100,000 payment is unworkable. In 2023, the median wage for brand spanking new H-1B workers was $94,000, in contrast with $129,000 for these already within the system. Because the payment targets new hires, most will not even earn sufficient to cowl it, say consultants.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ce3d/live/9e049fb0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="A chart showing the five countries that have the most H1-B approvals - India tops the list, follopwed by China, Phillipines, Canada, and South Korea" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> "Because the newest White Home directive signifies that the payment would solely apply to new H-1B recipients, that is extra more likely to trigger medium and long-term labour shortages as an alternative of rapid disruption," Gil Guerra, an immigration coverage analyst on the Niskanen Middle, informed the BBC.

India might really feel the shock first, however the ripple results might run deeper within the US. Indian outsourcing giants equivalent to TCS and Infosys have lengthy ready for this by constructing native workforces and shifting supply offshore.

The numbers inform the story: Indians nonetheless account for 70% of H-1B recipients, however solely three of the highest 10 H-1B employers had ties to India in 2023, down from six in 2016, in line with Pew Analysis.

To make sure, India's $283bn IT sector faces a reckoning with its reliance on shuttling expert employees to the US, which accounts for over half its income.

IT business physique Nasscom believes the visa payment hike might "disrupt enterprise continuity for sure onshore tasks". Purchasers are more likely to push for repricing or delay tasks till authorized uncertainties are cleared, whereas corporations might rethink staffing fashions - shifting work offshore, decreasing onshore roles and turning into way more selective in sponsorship selections.

Indian companies are additionally more likely to go on the elevated visa prices to US purchasers, says Aditya Narayan Mishra of CIEL HR, a number one staffing agency.

"With employers reluctant to decide to the heavy value of sponsorship, we might see larger reliance on distant contracting, offshore supply and gig employees."

The broader impression on the US may very well be extreme: hospitals going through physician shortages, universities struggling to draw STEM college students, and start-ups with out the lobbying muscle of Google or Amazon are more likely to be hit hardest.

"It [visa fee hike] will power US corporations to transform their hiring insurance policies and offshore a big quantity of their work. It can additionally ban founders and CEOs coming to handle US-based companies. It can deal a devastating blow to US innovation and competitiveness," David Bier, director of immigration research on the Cato Institute, informed BBC.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cf15/live/b0a2b4e0-9701-11f0-a296-7d79931be7e0.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images Muthumalla Dhandapani, an Indian immigrant with an H1-B visa and a Comcast employee in Sunnyvale, protests against President Trump's immigration orders in 2017. A bill in Congress would� alter the employment-based immigrant system, tilting it towards immigrants from India and China, without increasing the overall number of visas for everyone. (Photo by Santiago Mejia/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> San Francisco Chronicle through Getty Photos Indians dominate the H-1B programme, making up greater than 70% of recipients

That nervousness is echoed by different consultants. "The demand for brand spanking new employees in fields like tech and drugs [in US] is projected to extend (albeit in uneven methods), and given how specialised and demanding these fields are, a scarcity that lasts even a number of years might have a critical impression on the US financial system and nationwide well-being," says Mr Guerra.

"It can seemingly additionally incentivise extra expert Indian employees to have a look at different nations for worldwide research and have a cascading impact on the American college system as nicely."

The impression, in truth, can be felt most sharply by Indian college students, who make up one in 4 worldwide college students within the US.

Sudhanshu Kaushik, founding father of the North American Affiliation of Indian College students, which represents 25,000 members throughout 120 universities, says the timing - simply after September enrolments - has left many new arrivals shocked.

"It felt like a direct assault, as a result of the charges are already paid, so there is a massive sunk value of anyplace between $50,000 and $100,000 per scholar - and essentially the most profitable path to getting into the American workforce has now been obliterated," Mr Kaushik informed the BBC.

He predicts the ruling will hit US college consumption subsequent 12 months, as most Indian college students go for nations the place they will "put down everlasting roots".

For now, the total impression of the tax hike stays unsure.

Immigration legal professionals count on Trump's transfer to face authorized challenges quickly. Mr Guerra warns that the fallout may very well be uneven: "I count on the brand new H-1B coverage will carry a lot of unfavorable penalties for the US, although it would take a while to see what these could also be."

"For instance, on condition that the manager order permits for sure corporations to be excepted, it may very well be attainable that some heavy H-1B customers equivalent to Amazon, Apple, Google, and Meta will discover a option to be exempted from the H-1B payment coverage. If all of them get exemptions, nonetheless, this is able to largely defeat the aim of the payment."

Because the mud settles, the H-1B shake-up seems to be much less like a tax on overseas employees and extra like a stress take a look at for US corporations - and the financial system. H-1B visa holders and their households contribute roughly $86bn yearly to the US financial system, together with $24bn in federal payroll taxes and $11bn in state and native taxes.

How corporations reply will decide whether or not the US continues to steer in innovation and expertise - or cedes floor to extra welcoming economies.