Why Arab states are scared of US conflict with Iran

[ad_1] As an American assault on Iran appears more and more inevitable, America’s allies within the Persian Gulf — the very nations internet hosting U.S. bases and bracing anxiously for an Iranian blowback — are scared of escalation and are lobbying Washington to cease it .

The dimensions of the U.S. mobilization is certainly staggering . As reported by the Accountable Statecraft’s Kelley Vlahos, a minimum of 108 air tankers are in or heading to the CENTCOM theater. As navy officers reckon, strikes can now occur “at any second.” These preparations recommend not solely that the operation could also be imminent, but in addition that it may very well be extra sustainable and long-lasting than a one-off strike in Iranian nuclear websites final June.

There may be an growing sense of doom among the many regional observers: given the size of the build-up, there isn't a face-saving approach for President Donald Trump to name off strikes and rescue himself from a scenario into which he has needlessly pushed himself into.

However whereas U.S. navy planners take a look at goal lists, Iraq and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states see only risk .

“They could wish to see the Iranian management weakened, however all of them are extra involved a couple of situation of chaos and uncertainty and the opportunity of extra radical parts coming to energy there,” Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst and non-resident fellow on the Arab Gulf States Institute, instructed Al Jazeera last month .

Since January, Saudi Arabia , Qatar, and Oman, alongside Turkey and Egypt, have been engaged in intense diplomacy to tug Washington and Tehran again from the brink. This isn't as a result of they harbor any sympathy for Tehran, however as a result of they notice they might be on the entrance traces of the Iranian retaliation, and what occurs after if the regime had been to break down.

As regional analyst Galip Dalay notes, along with the financial and safety destabilization that may happen, there's the truth that as a rising hegemon within the area, Israel tremendously advantages from the regime’s collapse.

“Iran’s energy and ambition throughout the area is diminished, and the prospect of an Iran-centric order has receded,” he wrote for Chatham Home this week. “For Center Jap leaders, the threats have modified: the best dangers are actually an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of a doubtlessly collapsed Iranian state.”

Bader al-Saif, an assistant historical past professor at Kuwait College, stated one thing just like the New York Times . “Bombing Iran goes in opposition to the calculus and pursuits of the Arab Gulf States, Neutralizing the present regime, whether or not by regime change or inside management reconfiguration, can doubtlessly translate into the unparalleled hegemony of Israel, which received’t serve the Gulf States.”

For predominant Shi'a Iraq, the chance of political and social unrest looms. After many years of upheaval, following the U.S. invasion in 2003, Iraq continues to be struggling to type a secure political system and coherent authorities. Baghdad is determined to remain out of this struggle.

An skilled with a profound data of Iraqi politics who spoke with the Accountable Statecraft on situation of anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, stated, smaller, hardline Shi'a teams like Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Nujaba may really feel compelled to assault the American troops within the area in Tehran's protection.

Nonetheless, the identical supply stated that the principle Shi'a political forces, comprising the Shiite Coordination Framework , together with the State of the Regulation Coalition led by potential Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and the Fatah Alliance led by one other influential commander turned politician Hadi al-Ameri, view a U.S.-Iran conflagration on their soil as an existential menace to their fragile sovereignty.

Tehran, too, is focused on making certain Iraq stays outdoors the fray. What Tehran wants because it fights for its personal survival is a practical neighbor and commerce accomplice, able to shopping for Iranian electricity , not a rustic relapsing into failure and chaos.

The hazard to the Gulf is multidimensional. First, there's the rapid bodily menace. Iran has repeatedly signaled that U.S. bases within the area are reliable targets. The June 2025 assault on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, following the U.S. strikes throughout the 12-day conflict, whereas with no casualties, stays a recent and terrifying reminiscence for Gulf leaders.

Any new, sustained marketing campaign may see services in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain come underneath fireplace from Iranian missiles or drone barrages. Statements from Iranian officers, reminiscent of Ali Shamkhani, the influential adviser to the Supreme Chief Ayatollah Khamenei, recommend that this time the response could be way more extreme than the largely symbolic strike on Al Udeid.

This menace will not be hypothetical; Saudi oil services had been crippled by an Iranian strike in 2019 . The lesson was clear: Iran has the aptitude to strike the Gulf international locations' infrastructure. With nothing to lose in a conflict that might be seen as existential for the Iranian authorities, the motivation to strike at international locations that host U.S. navy bases would improve.

Even when the Gulf states had been to be spared Iranian strikes on their territory, there could be different devastating penalties. These states try to diversify their economies and appeal to international funding and expertise; a menace of regional conflict would ship capital and folks fleeing.

A possible refugee disaster is one other main worry. The Iranian port of Bandar Abbas is a brief boat trip from Dubai. A battle that devastates Iran's financial system or triggers inside collapse may ship hundreds of displaced individuals throughout the water to the UAE.

Then there's a threat of an financial nightmare. As Iranian officers have explicitly warned , all choices are on the desk within the case of conflict, together with blocking or mining the Strait of Hormuz. Whereas a full closure is unlikely as it will severely hurt Iran’s personal oil exports to China , the IRGC Navy is now making ready a "smart" closure — selective interdiction that targets Western-linked tankers whereas permitting Chinese language oil purchases to go, Yemeni Houthi insurgent type.

One-fifth of the world's oil passes by that strait. As occurred with the Houthi blockade of the Pink Sea in response to the Israeli assaults in Gaza, the specter of closure will ship insurance coverage premiums skyrocketing and lift world oil costs.

That can increase the specter of inflation. Strikes on civilian oil infrastructure designed to spike world costs and lift rates of interest could be a direct assault on Trump's financial promise to People, within the 12 months of the mid-terms.

In the end, there’s a heightened threat of a U.S. navy assault making certain Iran discards its official nuclear doctrine for civilian functions solely and opts for weaponization — satirically, the very final result the conflict is ostensibly designed to stop. Wanting a full occupation of the nation by the U.S. and Israel — an unrealistic prospect — there are not any materials obstacles for a touch for a bomb given Iran’s know-how, ought to such a political resolution be taken in case the Supreme Chief Ayatollah Khamenei is incapacitated.

That would depart the GCC international locations in a worst potential scenario – dwelling subsequent to a revanchist, revisionist and doubtlessly nuclear-armed Iran down the highway. It could oblige them — definitely, Saudi Arabia and UAE — to hunt their very own nuclear deterrent plunging the area into a deadly, destabilizing arms race.

This broader worry of destabilization is the important thing motive why the Saudi Crown Prince and de-facto ruler Mohammad Bin Salman publicly ruled out the usage of the Saudi air house for an assault on Iran. The UAE is on the identical place, with Anwar Gargash, a key adviser to the president, calling for a “long-term diplomatic answer between Washington and Tehran”.

Regardless of the apparent dangers, the Trump administration's strategy has been perplexing. At the same time as Iran has provided severe concessions on the nuclear situation, reminiscent of suspending enrichment , and economic incentives to the U.S. over the last spherical of talks in Geneva, Trump seems to be in search of Tehran’s capitulation throughout the board – not solely on the nuclear file, but in addition relating to the ballistic missiles – an absolute red line for Iran.

In the meantime, the navy buildup accelerates inflicting profound nervousness in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Muscat, Baghdad and elsewhere within the Middle East . America's Gulf allies should not cheering for conflict; they're desperately making an attempt to stop it. Trump could be sensible to heed their recommendation – for his personal, and America’s, personal good.

“The repercussions of a state collapse would far exceed what the Center East has skilled on account of battle in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen, whether or not within the type of instability, migration, radicalism, the proliferation of armed teams, or regional spillover,” wrote Dalay. “Regional leaders imagine the U.S. should give regional diplomacy an actual probability. The choice is a devastating conflict and one other catastrophic cycle of battle.”