Why The Padres — Not The Dodgers — Are Finest Wager To Win Nationwide League

Will Hill

FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

We noticed maybe essentially the most thrilling commerce deadline in latest reminiscence come and go on Thursday.

I’d like to recap all of the offers, nevertheless it is likely to be faster to record the gamers who weren’t traded earlier than the July 31 deadline.

Seemingly each contender improved their group, or a minimum of made a transfer they hope improves their group, and even some fringe contenders had been surprisingly lively.

Whereas I joke that extra gamers had been traded than not this week, it is essential to notice a number of the huge names that didn’t get dealt, regardless of a lot hypothesis that they might.

Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Mackenzie Gore, and Mitch Keller had been a number of the beginning pitchers who had been closely rumored to be traded to contenders, however all 4 will stay with their present squads.

Whereas the asking worth for beginning pitchers might need been exorbitant, reduction pitchers had been flying off the cabinets like sweet. Ryan Helsley, Jhoan Duran, Mason Miller, Camilo Doval and David Bednar are all former All-Star closers who now discover themselves on a brand new group, and within the midst of a pennant race. On a day-to-day betting foundation, a group to maybe keep away from is the Minnesota Twins, who unloaded their 5 (5!) finest relievers, in addition to Carlos Correa, amongst others.

However from a futures standpoint, there’s one group that stole the present on deadline day.

The San Diego Padres are +1100 to make the World Sequence at DraftKings Sportsbook (a $10 guess wins $120 complete). In line with some, the Padres overpaid for a few of their new gamers, yielding a lot of their highly-coveted prospects. However for the sake of 2025, they’re vastly improved and put themselves within the dialog for the deepest and finest group in baseball.

Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller, Will Wagner, Nestor Cortes, JP Sears, and Freddy Fermin all fill holes and supply upgrades to the present roster, regardless of the pricey package deal of prospects that went out the door.

Miller, now the previous A’s nearer, is without doubt one of the finest reduction pitchers in baseball, and is added to what was already the most effective bullpens within the league. O’Hearn is an All-Star outfielder this 12 months, whereas the opposite gamers acquired present a wealth of depth at their respective positions.

One of many causes I believe we bought such an lively and thrilling deadline is that groups sense a gap — a chance to win all of it. The Dodgers had been the clear-cut favourite heading into the season, however have merely been good, not nice. With L.A. seemingly susceptible, and the American League missing a dominant group, franchises are going for it.

They should be considering, “Why not us?”

The Mets, Mariners, and Yankees all added a ton of expertise as effectively, and that is about as wide-open because the World Sequence race has ever felt. However from a betting perspective, these groups all have a lot shorter odds than the Padres, who, it’s simple to overlook, led the Dodgers 2-1 final October and had two possibilities to get rid of the eventual champs within the division sequence.

At 11-1, the Padres to win the NL is a superb guess.

PICK: Padres (+1100) to win the Nationwide League

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports activities for over a decade. He’s a betting analyst who has been a bunch on VSiN, in addition to the Goldboys Community.

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