Don’t fall for the lure: Why the Raptors cowl Sport 3 vs. the Cavaliers

[ad_1] The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) and Toronto Raptors (0-2) head north of the border for Sport 3 of their first-round 2026 NBA Playoff collection Thursday. Tip-off on the Scotiabank Enviornment is 8 p.m. ET and can air on Amazon Prime.

Toronto wants this recreation to keep away from a traditionally insurmountable 3-0 deficit. Cleveland received and lined the primary two video games of the collection: 126-113 in Sport 1 and 115-105 in Sport 2.

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Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have torn the Raptors aside within the first two video games. Mitchell is averaging 31.0 factors per recreation (PPG) on 55.8% taking pictures, and Harden is including 25.0 PPG on 53.1% taking pictures.

Cleveland Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden speak throughout Sport 2 within the first spherical of the 2026 NBA Playoffs vs. the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Ohio. (David Dermer/Imagn Photographs)

The Raptors have gotten good video games from forwards Scottie Barnes (averaging 23.5 PPG) and R.J. Barrett (scoring 23.0 PPG). However their regular-season main scorer, Brandon Ingram, has been terrible, placing up simply 12.0 PPG on 33.3% thus far this collection.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors Odds (DraftKings) Moneyline: Cleveland (-155) | Toronto (+130)Unfold: Cavaliers -3.5 (-102) | RAPTORS +3.5 (-118)Complete — 221.5 — Over (-108) | Beneath (-112) Provided that Cleveland smacked Toronto in Video games 1-2, does not "Cavaliers -3.5" really feel like a lure line? I imply, the Cavs solely have to win by 4+ factors to cowl once they've received the primary two video games by double digits. That stated, the "Raptors +3.5" nearly needs to be a contrarian play.

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Cleveland Cavaliers' James Harden defends Toronto Raptors ahead Brandon Ingram in Sport 2 within the Jap Convention First Spherical of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Enviornment in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Photographs)

Moreover, it is not all dangerous for Toronto as a result of it is splitting the "4 components" with Cleveland. The Raptors want Cavaliers SF Max Strus, Mitchell, and Harden to chill off a bit, however gamers usually shoot worse on the street.

Toronto Raptors ahead Brandon Ingram will get a reverse layup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers in Sport 2 of their first-round collection within the 2026 Jap Convention Playoffs at Rocket Enviornment. (David Dermer/Imagn Photographs)

Talking of which, I am anticipating Ingram to have a bounce-back recreation at house, the place he performs significantly better. Ingram averages almost 4 factors per recreation at house and shoots higher from in all places on the ground.

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Evan Mobley is Cleveland’s solely good defensive starter, and no different Cavalier moreover him can shut down Ingram. If the Raptors do a greater job of getting him one-on-one towards Harden and Mitchell, Ingram will get going, and Toronto can get again on this collection.

Toronto Raptors ahead Scottie Barnes drives on Cleveland Cavaliers massive Evan Mobley through the first spherical of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Enviornment. (David Dermer-Imagn Photographs)

Raptors beginning PG Immanuel Quickley has been injured for the primary two video games of this collection and is "questionable" for Sport 3. I am banking on Quickley returning Thursday as a result of it is "all arms on deck" for Toronto. He averaged 16.5 PPG and 5.9 assists through the common season.

In the end, the Cavs aren't that significantly better than the Raptors, and will not go up 3-0, which is mainly a sweep. Or perhaps Cleveland is, and Toronto nonetheless covers the unfold.